448
FXUS62 KTBW 131936
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
336 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 334 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
  the next week.

- Onshore flow will continue through the weekend and the first
  half of next week, keeping the highest storm chances over inland
  areas each day, mainly in the afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Westerly boundary layer flow will continue through the weekend
and into early next week as the surface ridge axis remains across
south Florida. This will keep the trend of overnight/early morning
showers over the Gulf with the best storm chances inland later in
the day as the west coast sea breeze advances eastward. Through
the rest of the week, the ridge axis does shift back north a bit
and some relatively drier air moves over the region, which will
help lower rainfall chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 334 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
VFR conditions are expected as most shower and thunderstorm
activity should remain east of area terminals through the rest of
the day. Tomorrow will feature a similar forecast, with a few
showers possible during the late morning/early afternoon hours,
but chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Most
convection will again be inland tomorrow afternoon after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
High pressure will prevail with no headlines expected. Winds remain
westerly for the next several days, with the best rain chances
overnight into the morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026
No fire weather concerns over the next several days as relative
humidity values remain above critical levels. No significant fog is
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  91  80  91 /  10  10  10  10
FMY  77  90  78  91 /  30  30  10  10
GIF  76  93  76  93 /  50  40  10  30
SRQ  79  90  79  91 /  10  10   0  10
BKV  77  93  78  92 /  10  10  10  20
SPG  80  91  80  91 /  10  10   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Carlisle