Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 242 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

Primary forecast focus is on midweek rain chances.

This morning, continue to watch the evolution of a decent MCS across
western Nebraska this morning. Radar trends suggest a steady
progressive east/southeasterly motion, with decent shear/cold pool
balance. Convection remains focused near the 850mb front, with some
semblance of insentropic ascent around 310 K. The overall synoptic
pattern remains diffuse for the central plains. A stout 500mb trough
continues to traverse Ontario and the the Great Lakes, while fairly
weak ridging remains in place over the Four Corners and
Intermountain West. This has resulted in a diffuse baroclinic zone
from the western high plains of Wyoming/Montana to the Ozarks.
General consensus this morning is the Nebraska MCS will continue to
build southeast through the morning, following the 1000 to 500mb
thickness contours, with scattered shower and thunder chances
clipping far eastern Kansas and western Missouri by midday.
Meanwhile the better chances for rain will remain farther west in
central Kansas.

With the eastward push of the upper trough from the Great Lakes to
the New England, the weak ridge will drift east of the Rockies
through tonight. With weak forcing for ascent isolated to scattered
showers will remain possible through the late afternoon and evening.
Overnight, expect another MCS to develop from afternoon convection
over South Dakota into Nebraska. This complex will have some added
support of a weak 500mb short wave trough traversing the general
flow. Additional convection is expected to develop and evolve
through the afternoon in eastern Nebraska moving into portions of
northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri through the evening
and overnight.

Thursday morning, the short wave trough will still be churning over
Minnesota and Iowa, with continued chances for showers and thunder
through the morning and lingering into the afternoon. The better
precipitation chances will be in Iowa and Minnesota, nearer the low
center, but good chances for welcome rain will occur across northern
Missouri.

Even with the shower and thunder chances, no good cold fronts will
make a pass, so temperatures will remain fairly warm, with highs
today and Wednesday in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with highs
returning to the mid 90s, for most, by the end of the work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2018

Active aviation period on the horizon as RA and/or TSRA chances
increase in the afternoon. VFR conditions to start, and overall,
will likely persist for a good portion of the period. Introduce
VCTS in the afternoon with a TEMPO for -TSRA, but feel confident
to go with prevailing -TSRA at all four sites by late afternoon.
Did not introduce any MVFR ceilings or visibility at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Kurtz


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