Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 355 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2020

Warming trend is in store for the upcoming week, as southerly
surface winds push some warmer and moister air into the area. The
southerly winds began on Sunday, within the pressure gradient
between the surface high that moved through the area over the
previous couple days and a weak surface trough forming over the
Intermountain West. The warming will likely be somewhat diminished
across the southern zones this week, as cloud cover associated with
TS Beta moves northward into southern and central Missouri. As the
mid level low associated with the tropical system moves onshore
early this week it will act to weaken the mid level ridge. This
shouldn`t cause much of an impact for the immediate area, but there
could be some lower H5 pressure heights over southern and central
Missouri this week. The resulting relative mid level low should
cause some increasing clouds and perhaps some precipitation across
southern and central Missouri. While the bulk of any rainfall will
remain well south of the forecast area, Tue-Thurs will represent a
time period where some light rain may occur along the I-44 corridor,
up toward the HWY 50 corridor. Elsewhere, for areas north of that
thicker cloud cover, expect the aforementioned warming trend to take
place with daytime highs this week in the upper 70s to perhaps
middle 80s, with a hint of mugginess as dewpoints may approach the
lower to middle 60s. A more dramatic change to the pattern should
come sometime this weekend as a stout mid level trough pushes over
the area, and will drag a surface cold front through the area. Along
the frontal boundary, there will be chances for accumulating rain,
but due to the progressive nature of this boundary, expect marginal
impacts from this round of showers and thunderstorms. Behind the
cold frontal boundary will be another fall-like airmass
characterized by dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures should
be pretty close to seasonal normals, and little to no rain is
forseeable at this point beyond the frontal passage this upcoming
weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2020

Patchy morning fog near large rivers will be possible through
sunrise, but once the sun comes up and temperatures start
increasing fog chances diminish. Only site so far to indicate any
reduced VIS has been KMKC, so added a brief TEMPO group through
13z. VFR conditions there after with winds generally out of the
south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Leighton


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