Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
533 AM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 419 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019

Active weather continues through the forecast period; will focus on
notable changes to forecast and their associated impacts to the
area.

This morning: immediate concern is for ongoing dense fog, roughly
along and south of the I-70 corridor. In these areas, visibility has
been limited to one-quarter mile. While most temperatures have
warmed to just above the freezing mark, cannot completely rule out
patchy areas of freezing fog where pockets of the surface
temperatures are slightly below freezing. Conditions have gradually
been improving from north to south overnight as light northerly
winds have advected slightly drier air into the area, so while
ongoing dense fog advisory extends through noon, may see improvement
over the course of the AM to remove counties from north to south if
trends continue. Otherwise for today, expect stratus to hold with
increasing chances of drizzle to develop. Temperatures will warm to
where the initial drizzle should have no/minimal impact.

This evening/tonight: Precipitation is expected to increase in
coverage and intensity as ascent increases with the approach of the
next upper wave. Much of the model suite has been relatively
consistent in producing a swath of light freezing drizzle/rain where
surface temperatures fall at/below freezing. This corridor appears
to be most likely along Interstate 70 and points northward to
Highway 36. This zone is expected to have ice accumulations
averaging 0.05 with locally higher amounts, resulting in a glaze on
surfaces. Immediately to the north of the ice swath, light snow up
to one inch will be possible. Travel could become a concern,
especially within the icy corridor, likewise have issued a winter
weather advisory in most impacted areas from this evening into
Thursday AM to include potential trouble during the Thu morning
commute. The two areas of greatest uncertainty will be the placement
of the freezing temperature line and the onset of light freezing
drizzle. Some model solutions suggest light precipitation to develop
during the afternoon hours, so will have to closely watch trends on
earlier light accumulation potential.

Friday evening/Saturday/Sunday: A much stronger system is projected
to impact the area late Friday into Saturday, with bitterly cold air
to follow. The forecast remains unchanged, with growing confidence
of accumulating snowfall for much of the area. Additionally,
temperatures Saturday evening through Monday morning will be
unseasonably cold. Model consensus has gradually trended warmer with
respect to weekend temperatures, but still highs on Sunday are
projected to remain in the teens as influence from surface high
pressure and a fresh snow cover in place. Northerly winds
immediately behind the system will be windy, with gusts up to 35mph
possible. This may lead to some areas of blowing and drifting snow,
along with bitterly cold wind chills below zero Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Those with outdoor plans this weekend should prepare
for potentially dangerous conditions if being exposed to the
elements and dress accordingly.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 532 AM CST WED JAN 16 2019

Visibility has improved at terminal space over the past few
hours, with IFR ceilings still in place. Expect overall IFR
conditions to hold through much of the day. Chances for drizzle
will increase late this afternoon into the evening, potentially
FZDZ/-FZRA tonight impacting terminals and a return to LIFR
conditions possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday for KSZ025-102>105.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ057-060-105.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Thursday for MOZ012>017-020>025-028>033-037>039.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ037>040-043>046-
     053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair


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