Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 180408
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1108 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 230 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018

Relatively tranquil conditions are expected to continue through this
forecast period with the lone chance of rain coming on Friday.
Tonight, a surface ridge of high pressure will build directly over
the region allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to lower
40s. This ridge will remain over the area most of the day tomorrow
however, a return to southerly flow on the back side of the ridge
tomorrow afternoon will allow temperatures to rise into the low to
mid 60s. Increasing clouds Thursday night will keep temperatures a
bit more mild with lows in the mid to upper 40s. The increasing
clouds will come courtesy of a lead shortwave ejecting out from a
upper level trough over the eastern Rockies. It is also this lead
shortwave that will have the opportunity to bring rain to area
Friday. There is still some model discrepancy as to how much
moisture will build into the region ahead of the shortwave. The GFS
continued to keep moisture south of the CWA while the NAM and EC
produce showers over much of the area. Consequently, have chance
showers in the forecast for Friday. Showers will move out by Friday
night as a the weakening upper level trough moves through the region
forcing an associated cold front through the CWA.

The frontal passage on friday night will set the stage for a cool,
crisp but sunny weekend. Saturday, high pressure will build into
the area with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The surface ridge
of high pressure moves directly over the area Saturday night
providing for good radiational cooling with lows dropping into the
upper 20s to lower 30s. This will lead to a cool start to Sunday
with highs only rebounding into the low to mid 50s. A warming trend
looks to begin the first half of next week as upper level ridging
builds into the region. Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1108 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals with light south to southeast
wind through the daylight hours of Thursday. Otherwise, there
might be some showers moving in Thursday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Cutter


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