Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FGUS71 KALY 152237

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
637 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...Above normal flood potential for most portions of outlook area
and near normal for the remainder of the area...

Significant snowfall since the last outlook March 1st has resulted
in above normal snowpack and thus above normal flood potential for
the majority of the outlook area. With temperatures outlooked to
stay below normal for the two week outlook period, at this time it
appears the flood potential will not be realized. Unfortunately this
simply shifts the threat from the above normal snowpack into April.

This is the sixth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the
National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the
potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern
Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson,
Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from March 15th to the


Snow depths across Eastern New York and Western New England have
increased dramatically to normal and above normal conditions as a
result of March snowfall.

Snow depths in the Adirondack and Catskill mountains range from 10
to 20 inches in the valleys up to 1 to 2.5 feet above 1500 feet.
Some of the highest depths in NY state are found above 2000 feet
in the Catskills, where snow depths of 2 to 3 feet can be found.
This equates to snow liquid from 2 to 4 inches in the valleys up
to 4 to 7 inches in higher terrain.

In northwest Connecticut and western Massachusetts, snow depths of
up to 2 feet can be found, with up to 4 inches of liquid equivalent.

In southern Vermont, snow depths are an impressive 1.5 to nearly 3
feet and climbing at the time of this outlook. Measured liquid
equivalent in this area ranged from 3 to 5.5 inches.


Flooding due to river ice is no longer a concern for the season.


Due to snowmelt and rainfall in the latter half of February,
streamflow and soil moisture are currently above normal. According
to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day streamflow
averages across western New England and eastern New York are above
to much above normal. The PDSI drought severity index is currently
designated as in an "unusual moist spell" across the outlook area,
with the exception of a near normal designation for the entirety of
mid to the upper Hudson Valley.


New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) water
supply reservoirs are above normal for this time of year;
the system as a whole is at 94.1 percent of capacity, which is 3.7
percent above normal storage capacity.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoir levels in the
Upper Hudson/Sacandaga watershed are generally high for this time of
year due to the mid-January rain/snow event and subsequent rainfall
and snowmelt events. Indian Lake is about 2 feet above normal while
the Great Sacandaga Lake is about 8 feet above normal. In the Black
River watershed, Stillwater Reservoir is about 7 feet above
historical averages while Sixth Lake and Old Forge are within a foot
and a half of normal.


The 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks for March 20-24 and 22-28
respectively both call for below normal temperatures and above normal


While snowpack has dramatically increased since the March 1st
outlook, it currently appears unlikely that a large scale melt event
is in the cards for the next two week period. Unfortunately, that
shifts the threat of this snow melting in April, when temperatures
could be warmer and the melt has the potential to occur more rapidly.

The seventh Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday,
March 29th.

It is important to remember that heavy rain can cause flooding at
any time of year. Extended hydrologic information will be included
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at


Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our
web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to seven day ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.


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