Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FGUS73 KDTX 011701
ESFDTX

DDHHMM 281925
WRKESF
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-111200-
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1201 PM EST THU MAR 1 2018


...2018 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook
 for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton
 ...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins...

The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has
implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all
the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables
the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic
river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet
at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.

In the table below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more then HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher then normal. When the value of CS is
less then HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


*NOTE...Due to recent and some on going flooding, this outlook is
valid beginning March 11 through June 2 to give a more representative
outlook for the Spring beyond the recent flooding.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 03/11/2018 - 06/02/2018

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Clinton River
Clinton Township 16.0   17.0   19.0    15   19    7    7   <5   <5
North Branch Clinton River
Mt Clemens       15.0   16.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Clinton River
Mt Clemens       16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
River Rouge
Detroit          15.0   18.0   20.0    26   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
Middle River Rouge
Dearborn Hts     10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lower River Rouge
Dearborn         10.0   12.0   13.0    45   41    6   <5   <5   <5
Mill Creek
Dexter           12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   10   <5    7   <5   <5
Huron River
Hamburg           6.5    7.0    7.5    34   35   13   22   <5   13
Ann Arbor        16.0   17.0   18.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
River Raisin
Tecumseh         13.0   14.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Adrian           18.0   19.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Blissfield      683.0  685.0  687.0    12   15   <5    6   <5   <5
Dundee          650.0  652.0  653.0    10   13   <5    6   <5   <5
Monroe            9.0   10.0   11.0    11   16   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 03/11/2018 - 06/02/2018

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Pine River
Midland          12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Tittabawassee River
Midland          24.0   25.0   28.0    12   17    7   14   <5   <5
Shiawassee River
Owosso            7.0    9.0   10.0    26   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
Kearsley Creek
Davison          10.0   11.0   12.0    11    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
Flint River
Flint            13.0   15.0   17.0     7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cass River
Cass City        14.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Vassar           14.0   15.0   18.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Frankenmuth      17.0   20.0   25.0    13   23   <5    7   <5   <5
Saginaw River
Saginaw          17.0   19.0   24.0    23   21   <5   12   <5   <5


LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET



...PAST PRECIPITATION...
Precipitation across the area for February has been 2 to 3 times
above the normal with much above average temperatures bringing
most of the precipitation in the form of rain.

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
Rivers are flowing much above average for this time of year with
a few rivers over bankfull in locations due to recent flooding.
About all of the rivers are ice free.

...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH...
Thanks to the warm February temperatures and heavy rainfall, frost
depth is gone in many locations with just spotty shallow frost
depths. Soil is moistue is high from recent heavy rain and snow
melt, however, with the frost layer basically gone and soil
absorption now available, future runoff from rain will be lessened.

...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
As of issuance time of this product, snow pack was nil but some
accumulating snows are likely the first day of March.  Any snow
that does accumulate will gradually melt off during the first week
of March with no fanfare.

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
The outlook for the next 14 days calls for near normal temperatures
and near normal precipitation.

...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK...
With the winter snow pack basically gone along with most frost depth,
flooding potential this spring will be average to below average.

Any future hydrologic outlooks will be event driven.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX


$$

DRC



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