Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
741 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...The fifth and final 2018 Winter/Spring Flood Outlook analyzes a
general return to near-normal flood potential across the mountains
and Foothills and below-normal flood potential across the Piedmont
as observed and forecasted precipitation amounts struggle to reach
normal values and water demands increase heading into spring...

=====================
ABOUT THIS PRODUCT...
=====================

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NOTICE:

The full product has transitioned to a downloadable PDF
document, which is located at http://weather.gov/gsp/floodoutlook.
The text-only product is now deprecated and contains only the
Headline, About This Product, Long-Term Flood Outlook,
Acknowledgements, Next Issuance Date, Additional Resources, County to
Region Legend, Mainstem River Legend, and the Questions or Comments
sections.  Development and improvements to the Flood Outlook Product
will continue within the PDF version only.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Every two weeks from January through mid-March, NWS Greenville-
Spartanburg (GSP) issues a Flood Potential Outlook for the entire
service area (see county-to-region legend at the end of this outlook
for a list of counties serviced by NWS GSP).  These outlooks
forecast the potential for runoff, small stream, and mainstem river
flooding through late April, or the end of the winter recharge
season. The outlook is prepared based on an assessment of several
hydrometeorological factors, including recent and forecasted
precipitation and observed soil moisture, groundwater levels,
streamflows, reservoir levels, and recent flooding events.

This product and an archive of past Flood Potential Outlooks are
also located at:

http://weather.gov/gsp/floodoutlook

For additional hydrological and meteorological information please
visit:

http://weather.gov/gsp/hydro

==========================
LONG-TERM FLOOD OUTLOOK...
==========================

Given current antecedent conditions and short- to long-
range precipitation guidance, the latest long-term flood outlook
through the end of April 2018 is as follows...

---------------------------------------------------------------------

REGION        RUNOFF             SMALL STREAMS      MAINSTEM RIVERS
              POTENTIAL          FLOOD POTENTIAL    FLOOD POTENTIAL

NC Piedmont   Near Normal      | Near Normal      | Slghtly Blw Nrml
NC Foothills  Slghtly Abv Nrml | Near Normal      | Near Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   Slghtly Abv Nrml | Near Normal      | NO MAINSTEMS
NC Cntl Mnts  Slghtly Abv Nrml | Slghtly Abv Nrml | Near Normal
NC Srn Mnts   Slghtly Abv Nrml | Slghtly Abv Nrml | Near Normal

SC Mnts       Slghtly Abv Nrml | Near Normal      | NO MAINSTEMS
SC Foothills  Near Normal      | Near Normal      | Near Normal
SC Piedmont   Near Normal      | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Slghtly Blw Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   Slghtly Abv Nrml | Slghtly Abv Nrml | Near Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Slghtly Blw Nrml | Slghtly Blw Nrml | Below Normal

--------------------------------------------------------------------

==================
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
==================

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center (LMRFC) and the Southeast River Forecast
Center (SERFC).

The 1-10 day future precipitation is derived from guidance produced
by NWS Greenville-Spartanburg.

The long-term precipitation outlooks are derived from guidance
produced at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Streamflow information is courtesy of the United States Geological
Survey (USGS).

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy...Georgia Power...
and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).

The mainstem rivers flood outlook is produced in collaboration with
the LMRFC and the SERFC.

=====================
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
=====================

The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued in
January, 2019.

=======================
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES...
=======================

For the latest levels of streams and mainstem rivers across the
region please visit and bookmark:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/
area.php?wfo=gsp&hydro_type=0&hsa_type=1

For the latest status of DROUGHT conditions across the region please
visit and bookmark:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Please note the U.S. Drought Monitor is released every Thursday
morning, but only factors in data through Tuesday morning.  Any
precipitation which may occur after Tuesday morning, but before
Thursday morning, is considered in the following week`s product.

==========================
COUNTY TO REGION LEGEND...
==========================

------------
..GEORGIA...
------------

COUNTY         REGION

Elbert         GA Piedmont
Franklin       GA Piedmont
Habersham      GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Hart           GA Piedmont
Rabun          GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Stephens       GA NE Mountains/Foothills

-------------------
..NORTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Alexander      NC Foothills (Northern)
Avery          NC Northern Mountains
Buncombe       NC Central Mountains
Burke          NC Foothills (Northern)
Cabarrus       NC Piedmont (Southern)
Caldwell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Catawba        NC Foothills (Northern)
Cleveland      NC Piedmont (Southern)
Davie          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Gaston         NC Piedmont (Southern)
Graham         NC Central Mountains
Haywood        NC Central Mountains
Henderson      NC Southern Mountains
Iredell        NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Jackson North  NC Central Mountains
Jackson South  NC Southern Mountains
Lincoln        NC Piedmont (Southern)
Macon          NC Southern Mountains
Madison        NC Central Mountains
McDowell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Mecklenburg    NC Piedmont (Southern)
Mitchell       NC Northern Mountains
Polk           NC Foothills (Southern)
Rowan          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Rutherford     NC Foothills (Southern)
Swain          NC Central Mountains
Transylvania   NC Southern Mountains
Union          NC Piedmont (Southern)
Yancey         NC Northern Mountains

-------------------
..SOUTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Abbeville      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Anderson       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Cherokee       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Chester        SC Piedmont (Eastern)
Greenville     SC Mountains/Foothills
Greenwood      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Laurens        SC Piedmont (Lower)
Oconee         SC Mountains/Foothills
Pickens        SC Mountains/Foothills
Spartanburg    SC Mountains/Foothills
Union          SC Piedmont (Eastern)
York           SC Piedmont (Eastern)

========================
MAINSTEM RIVER LEGEND...
========================

REGION        RIVER

NC Piedmont   Catawba            (Heavily Regulated)
              South Fork Catawba (Slightly Regulated)
              Rocky
              Yadkin             (Regulated)
NC Foothills  Broad              (Regulated)
              Catawba            (Regulated)
NC Nrn Mnts   NONE
NC Cntl Mnts  French Broad       (Slightly Regulated)
              Little Tennessee   (Heavily Regulated)
              Nantahala          (Heavily Regulated)
              Oconaluftee        (Slightly Regulated)
              Pigeon
              Tuckasegee         (Heavily Regulated)
NC Srn Mnts   French Broad       (Slightly Regulated)
              Little Tennessee   (Heavily Regulated)
              Nantahala          (Regulated)
              Tuckasegee         (Regulated)
SC Mnts       NO MAINSTEM RIVERS
SC Foothills  Chatooga
              Enoree
              Pacolet            (Slightly Regulated)
              Reedy              (Slightly Regulated)
              Saluda             (Regulated)
              Savannah           (Heavily Regulated)
              Toxaway/Seneca     (Heavily Regulated)
              Tyger
SC Piedmont   Broad              (Regulated)
              Pacolet            (Slightly Regulated)
              Reedy              (Slightly Regulated)
              Saluda             (Regulated)
              Savannah           (Heavily Regulated)
              Tyger
GA NE Mnts/   Chatooga
   Foothills  Tallulah/Tugaloo   (Heavily Regulated)
GA Piedmont   Broad
              Savannah           (Heavily Regulated)

========================
QUESTIONS or COMMENTS...
========================

This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements over
the past couple of years.  Additional enhancements are planned for
future flood outlooks. Your feedback and recommendations
are encouraged in order to ensure this product meets user needs.
Please direct feedback, recommendations, questions, and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970 x234
joshua.palmer@noaa.gov

$$

JMP



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