Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 241939
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

...Rain Free and Trending Warmer into Early Next Week...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will continue over lower Michigan
producing rain free weather, with minimum relative humidity levels
mainly around 35 percent. Trends from the last few days have left
us on either side of 35 percent, which is expected to continue.
The high will move off to the east Sunday, allowing a warm front
to approach the Upper Great Lakes, and increasing the winds late
Sunday. The best chance for rain looks to be around late Monday
into Tuesday with a system that drops into Ontario.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-250815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
339 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (730).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 16 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 3 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1140).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-250815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
339 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler...except 3 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (700).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph increasing to
                    around 15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1270).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-250815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
339 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....44-49...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (800).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58...except 65-70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 19 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1070).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-250815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
339 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (830).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (710).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-250815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
339 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (740).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1060).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND
70. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JL


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