Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FNUS73 KGRR 161201
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Karner Trail...MI DNR
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
801 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue today across the area
of interest.  Increased cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures
cooler and minimum relative humidity values higher than on Monday. Rain
will begin to decrease from west to east late in the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms throughout the day.
Temperature.........77 at ignition...Max 83.
RH..................76 percent at ignition...Min 63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 9 mph at ignition...
                    otherwise Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
                    Gusts up to 20 mph early in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3100 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 14 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....200 /fair/ at ignition. Max...500 /good/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM
Sky (%).........79     74     56     73     71     51
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............77     81     83     83     79     73
RH..............76     72     67     63     74     90
20 ft wind......SW 9   SW 9   SW 8   SW 8   SW 5   S 4
20 ft wind gust.16     14     13     10     6      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   2900   3000   1700   500    100
Haines index....3      3      3      2      2      3
Smoke Dispersal 200    500    500    300    100    0

$$
Forecaster...Sutton
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1912305.0/GRR
.DELDT 07/16/19
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL osterlandl@michigan.gov


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