Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 232313 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 613 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018 Precipitation chances starting late tonight and continuing through Wednesday, with some small chance of a rain/snow mix in northeast Nebraska late Tuesday night, and temperatures through the period are the main forecast concerns. Cumulus clouds that developed today from parts of KS into central and parts of northeast NE should dissipate this evening. Clouds will be increasing later tonight, especially for about the northwest half of the forecast area. Water vapor satellite imagery early this afternoon showed a closed low near Yellowstone NP with precipitation across parts of WY and MT. Surface low and an associated cold front will track southeast tonight and Tuesday. Expect a weakening low pressure center at the surface to be over northwest MO by Tuesday evening. Tonight our winds will mainly be light from the east or northeast, then shifting to north or northwest with passage of that cold front Tuesday. Will have the chance of showers increasing into the likely category across much of northeast NE Tuesday afternoon and evening but then highest chances shift into southeast NE after that. There is not much for instability, so no mention of thunder. There are some signals that a very minor rain/snow mix may occur late Tuesday night west of a line from Wayne to Albion but no snow accumulation is expected. Total rain amounts should be highest mainly west of a line from Wayne to Beatrice, with 0.25 to 0.50 possible. Amounts east of that line, less than a quarter of an inch and maybe less than 0.10 in IA. A fast moving system will track through the area Thursday, with a chance of showers. Instability also looks weak with this system, but later forecasts may need to add a slight chance of thunder for parts of southeast NE and southwest IA late Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018 At the start of this period, there will be a 500 mb ridge over the Rockies and a closed low off the west coast. The GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement with the large scale pattern, but the GFS has the low just a bit farther east. With time, differences increase, so confidence on forecast details decreases. The pattern from Friday through Monday should trend generally warmer than what we will see through mid week. High temperatures should moderate into the 70s, with lows also warming from the 40s to the lower and mid 50s. Rain chances look fairly low at this time. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018 VFR conditions through the period with increasing clouds. Rain chances increase at KOFK 18-24z, and at KLNK 21-24z.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...DeWald

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