Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 130441 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1141 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Quiet weather through the short term, although fire danger will be increasing dramatically by Wednesday. High pressure across the area today with northwesterly flow and abundant sunshine. There is a weak wave moving off the front range of the northern Rockies and this may bring a few clouds to the area tonight, along with a reinforcing shot of cool high pressure for Tuesday. Highs similar tomorrow to today with abundant sunshine, but perhaps a couple of degrees cooler. Surface high pressure ridge slides east Tuesday night bringing a return southwesterly surface flow on Wednesday. Wind speeds increase to 15 to 20 mph, which should help boost temps into the 60s for most areas, with some locations possibly even reaching the mid to upper 60s. This drives humidity down to 25 to 35 percent during the afternoon, and while not low enough to create red flag conditions, high to very high grassland fire danger will develop. Cyclogenesis takes place across the front range of the Central Rockies Wednesday night as a weak front settles into the area, which in turn backs our surface flow to the east of southeast on Thursday. This will result in a much tighter temperature gradient from north to south, ranging from the lower 50s north of the boundary to the upper 70s south. This will again result in an elevated fire danger in southeast NE, although afternoon dewpoints should be 10-15 degrees higher than Wednesday which greatly mitigates the hazard. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Model agreement begins to deteriorate quickly heading into the long term, which results in a pretty low confidence forecast for the period. The first wave begins to eject out of the Rockies early in the period, but each model has its own idea of how this happens, and dramatically different thermal profiles. Thus stuck to the blends through the period. Rain chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with pops increasing to 40 to 70 by Friday morning. Could even be some thunder in this along the KS/NE border, and could even be a rain/snow mix in some areas, and even all snow on the northern edge. But again, to stress, overall confidence is very low at this time. Saturday based on model blends will probably be dry, but precip chances increase again for Sunday and Monday, which would again be a rain/snow mix, with more rain to the south, and more snow to the north, but details remain elusive with widely varying model solutions. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018 Surface high pressure will remain in place over the region through the forecast period. Other than some passing mid and high-level clouds, expect prevailing VFR conditions.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DeWald LONG TERM...DeWald AVIATION...Mead is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.