Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 182348
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
648 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

A few flurries and sprinkles remained over western IA and far
eastern NE on Wednesday afternoon as the compact storm system of
this morning continued to steadily progress east away from the
forecast area. A secondary vorticity max will drop south this
evening with a few more flurries and additional low cloud cover.

Clouds will diminish around sunrise or through Thursday morning as
surface high pressure builds toward northeast Nebraska. Winds will
become light so anticipate a cool morning especially in areas with
the fresh snow cover. If clouds clear out sooner, can expect to
drop several degrees further but at this time believe clouds will
hold. Similarly, Thursday high temperatures will depend on the
cloud cover clearing the area (which looks to be a high
probability by late morning) to allow the April sunshine to do its
work and warm the area up nicely other than the areas with deepest
snow cover.

Thursday night into Friday will see an increase in mid and high
level cloud cover as a storm system deepens and moves toward the
OK Panhandle. The local area will only experience a glancing
impact from this storm, primarily in the form of extra cloud cover
and perhaps rain showers mainly over the west and southwestern
portions of the forecast area. The best chance for precipitation
currently appears to come on Friday evening through Saturday
morning, but do not expect this to be a widespread or persistent
rain event...but if precipitation does fall it appears likely to
fall as liquid rain rather than snow. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler on Saturday in the 50s given the widespread cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

The southern storm system moves east on Sunday, but may leave
cloud cover in the area even after it departs. A fairly strong
cold front crosses the area with a Montana source region on
Tuesday, bringing a shift to northerly winds and a bit of a cool
down in addition to some low-end precipitation chances. It should
also help to scour out the remaining cloud cover for a day or two
until it returns with isentropic ascent and moisture advection
across the Plains by late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Short wave rotating around upper level low currently located
across eastern Iowa, will allow IFR/MVFR ceilings into the TAF
sites by 06 UTC. Model guidance is inconsistent in the duration of
MVFR/IFR conditions, with the NAM/HRRR/RUC depicting more
pessimistic conditions through 12-14 utc on Thursday; whereas,
GFS is depicting clearing by 08-09 utc. For now, will continue
previous forecast trend of maintaining mvfr/ifr conditions through
the night and will wait for next round of forecast guidance before
making any major adjustments to forecast.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Fortin



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