Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS63 KOAX 192331 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 631 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 Precipitation type and amounts tonight into Tuesday are the main forecast problems. Closed low over southern MO will continue to move eastward while the system in northern MT moves southeast. Models show another wave strengthening between the two previously mentioned systems overnight. That will bring precipitation back into the area. It will initially be rain but as temperatures cool, there will be a changeover to snow, with a rain/snow mix for a few hours. Have snow amounts of an inch or more generally north of a line from Columbus to Harlan. Lows should drop into the 29 to 34 degree range most locations, coldest west of highway 81. Precipitation will decrease in coverage from west to east during the day Tuesday as mid level lift shifts eastward and weakens. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow or a rain/snow mix through mid morning, then it should transition over to light rain before ending. Highs should top out mainly in the lower and mid 40s. The period from Tuesday night through Wednesday evening looks mainly dry. More sunshine on Wednesday (compared to Tuesday) will push highs in the 50s at most locations as surface ridge moves east and southerly winds bring in warmer air. Airmass continues to warm Thursday with continued southerly flow, pushing highs into the 60s in southeast NE. Most of the rest of the area should reach the upper 50s and lower 60s. A fast moving area of lift will track southeast through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Did add some low POPs for those periods, mainly from northeast NE into western IA. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 This period will turn more active by late Thursday night. Models are in very good agreement showing a 500 mb ridge stretching from Mexico through the western High Plains and then up into Saskatchewan at 00Z Friday. That moves off to the east by Friday night, as a trough and closed low dig into the Pacific Northwest. Although the main trough stays to our west through Saturday, several impulses are expected to move out across the Central Plains Friday through Sunday. It appears that there will be some elevated instability over southeast NE and southwest IA Friday night, with isolated thunderstorms possible. Highs should reach the 50s and 60s Friday, and mostly upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday into Monday. && .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 MVFR at KOFK, becoming IFR through the evening. Rain develops, but changes to snow, then snow ends by 12-13z. VFR conditions at KLNK/KOMA, becoming MVFR and eventually IFR, with rain developing, but changing to snow, then ending by 13-15z. 1-2" accumulation at KOFK, and less than an inch at both KLNK/KOMA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Miller LONG TERM...Miller AVIATION...DeWald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.