763
FXUS63 KOAX 131947
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
247 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation will continue to diminish over our southeastern
  counties through sunset this evening.

- Dry Tuesday with more chances (40-60%)for showers and non-
  severe thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday.

- Turning warmer upper 80s)by Saturday with more chances
  (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Tonight

Showers will continue to diminish from northwest to southeast early
this evening as a mid-level low currently centered over northeast
Kansas continues to move east and out of our area. A few scattered
non-severe thunderstorms developed across northeast Nebraska this
afternoon where warmer surface temperatures resided. These should
continue to dissipate this evening as well.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, smoke from northwestern
Canadian wildfires will move into the area per the HRRR/RAP
vertically integrated smoke fields. We are uncertain just how much
smoke may make it, if any, to the surface and so there remains that
wildcard. For now will include more sky cover with high clouds
(smoke) and keep surface visibility above 6 SM.

.Tuesday and Wednesday:

A quick-moving ridge will turn winds from the northeast to
southeast by Tuesday afternoon which should scour out any
surface smoke if it can reach the surface. Winds will remain
under 12 kts with highs in the mid to upper 70s producing what
looks to be a top 10 day.

Showers return to the forecast from west to east as early as Tuesday
evening and overnight into Wednesday. An upper trough axis will be
swinging through the region but severe storms seem unlikely with
limited shear and instability.

Remainder of the week:

The remainder of the forecast looks mostly dry with temperatures on
Thursday in the mid to upper 70s with readings rising by Friday into
the low to mid 80s. By Saturday, temperatures continue to warm
into the mid to upper 80s. A northern upper-level trough axis
will swing through on Sunday bringing slightly cooler
temperatures to the region for Sunday and Monday with our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle. There could
be intermittent MVFR cigs at KLNK from 18-22z, but VFR should
prevail. Both KOMA and KLNK will be on the northern edge of a
few light showers for the first 3 hours of the TAF period as
well. High level smoke from Canadian wildfires is forecast to
move over all sites overnight so did include high clouds. It is
uncertain at this time if the smoke will make it to the surface
overnight into Tuesday so did not include any reduced surface
visibility at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Kern