Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 220441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1141 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Issued at 814 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Regional radars have been showing some light showers, mainly just
sprinkles so far, that are moving into parts of the forecast area
from the west. Added some sprinkles or light showers for portions
of the forecast area this evening/tonight earlier.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

WV imagery this aftn showing a large upper level circulation
centered over the southeastern state continuing to migrate to the
east. Meanwhile a low amplitude ridge prevailed across the western
half of the CONUS along with a developing system situated off the
Pacific NW. At the sfc, broad high pressure was in control across
the central CONUS.

Topic of interest is possible precip event coming this weekend.
Thursday evening, shortwave energy is progged to move ashore over
southern CA and push into the central Rockies by 12z Friday then
into the Dakotas Friday afternoon. Increasing DPVA associated with
this wave induces leeside sfc cyclogenesis in eastern KS with
increasing boundary layer moisture advection into the central
Plains ensuing. Initial precip development late Thursday night is
progged to occur over the Dakotas, where brunt of synoptic scale
forcing will reside at that time, before expansing Southward into
the CWA as the surface low scoots across KS. Expect activity to
continue into Friday night/Saturday morning as the wave exits the
Dakotas and pushes past the mid MS vly. Both NAM/GFS advertise
PWS values topping out around an inch...and given the track of the
wave, suspect that decent rainfall amounts may be realized over
the eastern CWA. Also, elevated instability will likely allow for
a few rumbles of thunder to be heard mainly over the southern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Precip chances increase early next week in response to prolonged
period of isentropic upglide. Sunday through Tuesday...nocturnal
precip over the northern CWA may consist of a rain/snow mix at
times. Otherwise, weak elevated instability may lead to a few
rumbles of thunder along/south of I-80 Monday afternoon/evening.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Variable amounts of mid level clouds will occur overnight and into
Thursday morning. There will be some Spotty light precipitation,
but it should be isolated enough to not include in TAFs at this
time. Look for VFR conditions through the period with south or
southeast winds into Thursday afternoon.




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