Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 230451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1151 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

A departing closed mid/upper level low will continue to push east
into the Mississippi River valley tonight. Bands of mid and high
clouds on the northwest side of the closed low continue to drift
southeast through the forecast area but should begin to diminish
later tonight. A weak ridge of surface high pressure will slide
south through the area through the night keeping winds fairly light.
Overnight lows should bottom out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Weak upper level ridging and gradually increasing southerly low-
level flow should provide a pleasant day Monday with highs topping
out in the upper 60s to around 70 with fairly light wind.

Next chance for measurable precipitation arrives Tuesday afternoon
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough moving southeast through
the western Dakotas. This trough will push a surface cold front
through the area Tuesday. The bulk of sub-freezing 850mb temps will
remain well to our west so area looks to see only rain with this
system. 12Z Sunday model runs have all come in higher with QPF
amounts and as a result, pops have been significantly increased from
previous forecasts, into the likely category. Rain chances
continue overnight Tuesday into Wednesday until the upper trough
axis finally shifts southeast of the area Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

There will be another quick chance for rain during the day Thursday
as a fast-moving surface cold front slides southeast through the
region. This system will also bring slightly colder air in with it
which should drop Friday morning lows into the mid to upper 30s,
which are the coldest of the 7-day forecast.

Upper-level ridging will build across the western states through the
weekend with a gradual warming trend across the Central Plains. The
12z ECMWF, Canadian and GFS vary greatly on what happens Saturday
with the GFS bringing a stormy, southwest upper flow into the
Central Plains while the 12z ECMWF and Canadian keep the upper
ridge building overhead. Have continued with SuperBlend pops at 20
percent for Saturday into Sunday due to great uncertainty and for


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions through the period. The brush fire that burned
earlier in the day about 5 miles south of KOMA is still
smoldering. While that should stay south of the KOMA site, will
monitor closely to see if any smoke gets trapped under a
developing inversion overnight.




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