Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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496
FXUS63 KOAX 180802
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
302 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Latest winter storm was moving across the region at 07Z with
radar loop showing area of mixed precipitation lifting east
northeast ahead of strong shortwave trough over central Nebraska.
Surface low over northeast Kansas has shown a tendency toward
weakening the past few hours and will need to monitor if this
trend continues this morning as it tracks across northern
Missouri.

Models continue to show this system moving fairly quickly to the
east today with snow expected to diminish through the morning.
Main area of snow still looks to be across the far north with
totals in the 3 to 5 inch range expected then decreasing to around
an inch from Columbus to Harlan IA. Will continue with the
current advisory for northern parts of the area through 18Z. Winds
will also be diminishing through the day today as the system
moves off and gradient eases over the area.

Once this system moves off tonight high pressure will build into
the region through Thursday with mid level ridge axis over the
plains region ahead of the next strong upper trough in the western
CONUS. Moisture is pulled north ahead of this trough over the
western high plains from Texas to the western Dakotas. This band
of showers and thunderstorms will approach western parts of the
area on Friday but expect area to remain dry during the day on
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

PoPs begin to increase for the area Friday night as the broad
upper system approaches the the central and southern plains.
Latest model runs have this system move into the southern plains
on Saturday with the rain chances shifting south during the day.
Since stronger forcing and better moisture will remain to our
south rainfall will be on the light side. Dry weather then
indicated for Sunday and Monday before the next cold front moves
into the area with another chance of showers and thunderstorms
late Monday night and Tuesday. No snow expected this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms from central into
northeast NE as of 0430z will spread east/northeast overnight.
Rain is expected to change over to snow fairly quickly at KOFK
with ceilings lowering to MVFR or IFR. At KOMA and KLNK, showers
and isolated thunderstorms will become more probable by around 08z
with a potential mix or change over to light snow toward 12z
Wednesday. Gusty northeast winds will shift to north and then
northwest with the passage of a surface low through northeast KS.
The precipitation should end by mid morning with continued MVFR
ceilings through Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ011-
     012-015>018-031>034.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mead



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