Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 190454
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1154 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Convection struggled to push east toward the Missouri River today,
as it encountered much drier air. Winds gusted briefly early this
afternoon in response to an outflow boundary associated with the
area of precipitation. A frontal boundary set up along and just
north of Interstate-80, keeping temperatures cool, in the lower
70s across most of northeast Nebraska while southerly winds
allowed western Iowa and southeast Nebraska to warm into the lower
80s. A few more robust storms firing along this boundary may
survive to reach the Nebraska/Iowa border this evening.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop late this evening
and tonight as an area of low pressure progresses across
northeastern Colorado. The primary threat for severe weather looks
to remain in southwest Nebraska and western Kansas, well west of
our forecast area. However, showers and storms are expected to
move into northeast Nebraska overnight and eventually southeast
Nebraska by Saturday morning.

There could be a brief lull in precipitation late Saturday
morning/early afternoon across the southern portion of the forecast
area. If this break occurs, sufficient destabilization of the
atmosphere could take place Saturday afternoon, allowing convection
to reignite over southeast Nebraska. Storms could be fueled by 2000-
3000 J/kg CAPE and will likely be supercells given the 40-50kts of
bulk shear. The SPC has retained an Enhanced Risk for severe
storms over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Large hail
will be the most likely threat, however strong winds and an
isolated tornado will also be possible. Heavy rain will be another
concern as PWATs near 1.5" across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Showers and storms will linger across the area through Sunday as the
low pressure system slowly lifts northeast through Nebraska.  Any
thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits.  Cooler
air will be in place Sunday, with highs topping out around 60 in
northeast Nebraska and in the low 70s in southwest Iowa.

A brief period of dry weather is expected Monday before the
pattern becomes active once again as several disturbances move
through the region Tuesday through Saturday. Highs will warm back
into the 70s and low 80s next week, with lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The combination of a lower clouds behind a cold front and
scattered showers and thunderstorms much of the TAF period will
provide for the possibility for widespread MVFR conditions for
much of the forecast. Cold front will reach KOFK by 10Z or so, and
KLNK/KOMA by 12Z-14Z. Cigs near FL025 will follow that front.
Also, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
to develop overnight and continue through late morning, causing
isolated IFR cigs/vsbys. Stronger thunderstorms are possible in
the afternoon, after 20Z, at KOMA and KLNK. As precipitation
passes to the east after 00Z, MVFR to IFR cigs are expected to
settle across eastern Nebraska TAF sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...Dergan



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