Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 180805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
305 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Area of low clouds remains in place across the lower and middle
Missouri Valley at 07Z with surface high pressure centered over
Iowa. With light winds forecast to continue in the low levels
through the morning and additional moisture spreading north into
the area this afternoon, expect to see pretty solid cloud cover
again through the day which could impact expected highs if no
breaks develop by afternoon. Sunshine looks rather limited until
mid week when less clouds and warmer temperatures return.

The next chance of precipitation then moves into the region
tonight as an upper trough swings into the southern plains with
models showing compact cutoff low developing and tracking along
the OK/KS border. PoPs will increase overnight as this system
moves across the southern plains with southern parts of the area
having the better chance of receiving the more significant
rainfall. Lighter amounts are likely north but temperatures will
again be borderline providing a good chance of mixed precipitation
late tonight into early Monday morning. As temperatures warm
during the morning precip will change to all rain by noon and
continue through the afternoon as a reenforcing short wave moves
into the region. Colder air will also accompany this short wave
with the rain mixing or changing to snow during the evening in
northwest parts of the area. This trend then spreads into the rest
of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa after midnight becoming all
snow by Tuesday morning. Some accumulation is likely for northern
parts of the area where the cold air will be in place longer with
up to an inch possible. Typical for this time of year, as
temperatures warm during the morning rain will become the dominant
form of precip by late morning with rain ending in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A warming trend will start off the extended part of the forecast
as mid level ridging moves over the region ahead of another strong
western trough. An area of showers and isolated thunder is
possible by Thursday afternoon associated with the warm advection
pushing across the region. Additional rain chances are expected to
continue into the weekend, although models show different
solutions in timing and amplitude of the pattern so confidence is on
the low side for specifics at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

IFR conditions at KOFK become LIFR by 09z, then back to MVFR by
18z, and VFR by 20z. MVFR conditions at KLNK/KOMA become IFR by
09-10z, then back to MVFR by 16z, and VFR by 18-21z. All three
sites could experience showers late in the TAF period 19/01-06z
with possible MVFR conditions redeveloping.




LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...DeWald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.