573
FXUS63 KOAX 070428
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory issued for northeast Nebraska for 10 AM through
  7 PM Monday, for gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph.

- Severe storms are expected this evening, primarily from 4 to
  10 PM as a line of storms moves thought the area. Damaging
  wind, hail, and embedded tornadoes are possible.

- Light showers and a few rumbles of thunder linger through the
  end of the work week, with drier conditions and highs in the
  70s returning for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Widespread cloud cover is draped across the CWA this afternoon
as anticipated. There is clearing across most of western Iowa
leading to the development of CAPE of 100+ J/kg there. Pre-
frontal clearing in north-central Kansas is pushing northeast.
There are already some weak radar returns across the Saunders
County area as of 1:30 PM.

Surface analysis reveals a messy setup with a cold front, warm
front, dry line all draped across parts of central Nebraska. The
surface low has pushed over the Black Hills and will threaten
the May low pressure record of Rapid City. Strong moisture
advection has dewpoints near 60 for the entire CWA. Pressure
falls are most pronounced near the warm front and in western
Iowa. Weak convergence along the cold front has already helped
initiate severe convection in north-central Kansas.

Higher up, the low is nearly stacked over the sfc low and the
deep negatively- tilted trof continues to drive north, taking
the surface low with it. This system will continue to influence
Nebraska and Iowa weather through the week as it continues to
spin across the High Plains through the work week.

For tonight`s severe weather, all threats are on the table with
tornadoes, damaging wind, large hail, and flash flooding all
within the realm of reasonable possibility.

CAPE values should peak above 1500 J/kg this afternoon with
effective bulk shear at 30-40 kts. CAMs keep developing supercells
in the warm sector and they will have thermodynamics and
kinematics in their corner. Forecast hodographs certainly
suggest powerful mesocyclones capable of large hail and
tornadoes with any warm sector storms.

The safest bet for strong convection will be the storms that
develop along the merging cold front / dry line. With low-level
shear vectors basically parallel to the boundary, these storms
should quickly merge into a QLCS. With the strong vertical
shear (25 knots), QLCS tornado formation could be maximized. In
other words, all storm modes today will be dangerous.

If anything, today`s timing seems to have slowed by about an
hour compared to 24 hours prior. Expect the line of storms to
push into the westernmost counties of the CWA by about 4pm
passing the OFK area by 6pm, past LNK by 730pm and OMA by 9pm.
Warm sector storms will mostly be a threat from 4pm to whenever
the line passes any given location.

For flash flooding concerns, QPF values are maximized along and
east of the Missouri River where rainfall rates have the
greatest chance 60-80% of pushing higher than 1" per hour. PWAT
values of 1-2" are forecast which are in the 95th percentile for
early May (NAEFS). The progressive nature of the storm system
should preclude a long period of heavy rain, but one hour FFG
is low enough (1.5 inches) that localized flooding is possible,
especially urban areas in the CWA`s eastern half or anyone
unlucky enough to see a supercell drop 0.7" ahead of the strong
line succeeding it.

As skies clear overnight, temps will slip to 50 degrees or a
notch cooler before sun propels us back into the 70s by Tuesday
afternoon. The upper low meanders southeast toward Pierre, SD
transitioning our zonal flow to a more southwesterly track
keeping any little shortwave capable of producing showers /
thunder. Chance PoPs litter days 3 through 5 and temps slip a
bit and fall shy of seasonal norms as a result.

The weekend looks dry and warm in the system`s wake as west
coast ridging noses closer to the southern Missouri River
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Strong to severe storms will continue to push east of the
forecast area tonight. VFR conditions will prevail behind the
departing storms. Light WSW winds will become gusty after 15Z
tomorrow, occasionally reaching speeds of 20-30kts. Winds will
weaken again to under 12kts after 00Z Tuesday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...KG