Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 222027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
327 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A few showers, fostered by low level warm advection, finally managed
to shuffle out of the CWA early this afternoon.  Southerly winds at
the surface allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 50s and mid
60s across the area.  Meanwhile, a prominent upper level ridge
continued to build eastward into the central plains.

A shortwave will move into the region Friday, breaking down the
upper ridge.  As this occurs, an area of low pressure at the surface
will deepen as it moves out of the Rockies and into eastern
KS/western MO by Saturday morning.  A surge of moisture will
accompany this system, bringing a chance for light precipitation to
the area Friday through Saturday morning.  Freezing temperatures
should remain well to the northeast, leaving us with rain showers. A
few rumbles of thunder will be possible Friday evening through
Friday night, given the presence of weak instability and moderate
mid-level lapse rates. Expect precipitation chances to diminish late
Saturday morning as the surface low works it`s way ESE through

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

A brief period of mostly dry weather is expected Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night.  However, another round of light precipitation
is expected Sunday as a warm air advection pattern sets up across
the region. A few snowflakes could mix in as cooler air briefly dips
into northeast NE Sunday morning, however the majority of any precip
that does fall is expected to be liquid at this time.  Another Rocky
Mountain surface low will progress through the region Monday
bringing a strong cold front and better shot for measurable
precipitation. Thunderstorms still appear possible, especially
across the southern half of the CWA as instability ramps up. Surface
temperatures should remain above freezing through the day Monday,
however as the cooler air pushes in Tuesday, there will be some
potential for light snow to mix in once again. Surface high pressure
finally builds in Tuesday evening, allowing for another brief period
of dry weather before the next chance for rain/snow arrives late
Wednesday night and into Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Increasing low
level moisture advection after midnight though will result in
deteriorating conditions through Friday morning. Expect MVFR cigs
to prevail then at all terminals btwn 12z-18z Friday. At this
point have decided not to include any mention of RA as areal
coverage at that time is still in question.




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