Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 192331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
631 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Precipitation type and amounts tonight into Tuesday are the main
forecast problems.

Closed low over southern MO will continue to move eastward while
the system in northern MT moves southeast. Models show another
wave strengthening between the two previously mentioned systems
overnight. That will bring precipitation back into the area. It
will initially be rain but as temperatures cool, there will be a
changeover to snow, with a rain/snow mix for a few hours. Have
snow amounts of an inch or more generally north of a line from
Columbus to Harlan. Lows should drop into the 29 to 34 degree
range most locations, coldest west of highway 81.

Precipitation will decrease in coverage from west to east during
the day Tuesday as mid level lift shifts eastward and weakens.
Temperatures will be cold enough for snow or a rain/snow mix
through mid morning, then it should transition over to light rain
before ending. Highs should top out mainly in the lower and mid

The period from Tuesday night through Wednesday evening looks
mainly dry. More sunshine on Wednesday (compared to Tuesday) will
push highs in the 50s at most locations as surface ridge moves
east and southerly winds bring in warmer air. Airmass continues to
warm Thursday with continued southerly flow, pushing highs into
the 60s in southeast NE. Most of the rest of the area should reach
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

A fast moving area of lift will track southeast through the region
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Did add some low POPs
for those periods, mainly from northeast NE into western IA.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This period will turn more active by late Thursday night. Models
are in very good agreement showing a 500 mb ridge stretching from
Mexico through the western High Plains and then up into
Saskatchewan at 00Z Friday. That moves off to the east by Friday
night, as a trough and closed low dig into the Pacific Northwest.
Although the main trough stays to our west through Saturday,
several impulses are expected to move out across the Central
Plains Friday through Sunday. It appears that there will be some
elevated instability over southeast NE and southwest IA Friday
night, with isolated thunderstorms possible.

Highs should reach the 50s and 60s Friday, and mostly upper 40s to
mid 50s Saturday into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

MVFR at KOFK, becoming IFR through the evening. Rain develops, but
changes to snow, then snow ends by 12-13z. VFR conditions at
KLNK/KOMA, becoming MVFR and eventually IFR, with rain developing,
but changing to snow, then ending by 13-15z. 1-2" accumulation at
KOFK, and less than an inch at both KLNK/KOMA.




LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...DeWald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.