Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 232017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
317 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across the
area tonight as a shortwave trough approaches the region increasing
large-scale forcing for ascent across our forecast area this
evening. In addition, a surface low currently over northeast
Colorado will move east across northern Kansas along a warm front
and into a low-level moist axis extending into north central
Kansas. Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated later this
afternoon near the surface low and is expected to continue to move
east/northeast, becoming elevated as convection drifts eastward.
There remains a slight risk for a few severe storms later
this evening along the KS/NE border which includes a few of our
southwestern counties as the surface low taps into the modified
Gulf airmass. Given steep mid-level lapse rates, a few storms
may produce isolated large hail in our far southwestern counties
later this evening. Rain will continue through much of the
overnight until the upper-level shortwave axis slides east of the
region. By 12Z Saturday, the surface low is forecast to be
centered over northwest Missouri with lingering showers across
our eastern counties by that time.

Much of Saturday will be dry and cooler with brisk north winds
becoming easterly by evening. Medium range models continue to
indicate a swath of light precipitation developing over northeast
Nebraska Sunday morning, likely in response to strong low-level
warm air advection. Temperature profiles show some of this
precipitation could fall as light freezing drizzle or freezing
rain with surface temperatures close to 32-33 degrees. No
significant icing accumulations are expected but could cause a
little glaze on elevated surfaces before sunrise Sunday morning.
Showers return to the area Sunday and Sunday night ahead of our
next approaching shortwave. Surface low pressure is progged to
move east out of eastern Colorado into Monday with a surface front
extending northeast into Minnesota. Showers and thunderstorms
look likely near this boundary through the day Monday with much
cooler air filling in behind the boundary Monday night into

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Near-normal to slightly cooler than normal temperatures are
expected into much of next week with the exception of warmer
conditions on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Southeasterly winds will remain gusty this afternoon before
showers spread back into the region. VFR conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR levels shortly after 20Z, becoming IFR and
potentially LIFR around 02Z. Some strong to severe storms could
pop up in southeast NE after 02Z this evening. Rain chances will
continue across the area through Saturday morning.




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