Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 161805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
105 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Main forecast concern and challenge will be temperatures and
precip type for today and tonight.

Surface low pressure was located in far NW Kansas near the
Nebraska border at 07Z with upper circulation moving into western
Kansas. Bands of showers with isolated thunder in south central
Nebraska have been increasing over the area as jet max begins to
punch into north central Kansas. Showers expected to be wide
spread over the area at the start of the period with main
uncertainty being type of precip in far northeast Nebraska.

Will keep headlines as is for now but short range forecast
soundings keep surface temperatures at or above freezing for
most of the northeast Nebraska area for much of the day allowing
for intermittent periods of freezing rain and rain. Extent of
icing will depend on intensity of precip and temperatures with no
significant cooling indicated at this time during the day. Precip
likely to remain all liquid elsewhere across the area today with
some chance of a period of mixed precip spreading into parts of
the east tonight as the system tracks toward western Illinois.

Upper ridging and warmer temperatures return to the area for the
weekend but next chance of rain is back by Sunday afternoon as
another strong upper level wave moves across the southern Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Another period of wet weather is likely Sunday night into Tuesday
as yet another strong late winter system comes out of the southern
Rockies and across the southern plains. This system will start out
bringing mainly showers to the area through Monday before
changing to all snow by Monday night and Tuesday as colder air
follows behind the main low. At this point snowfall looks to be
limited. Warmer temperatures return by Wednesday and look to stay
around through the rest of the work week, although rain chances
increase by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Widespread IFR conditions are expected through Saturday morning.
MVFR cigs early in the TAF period will drop to IFR at all sites by
mid afternoon. An area of rain at KOMA and freezing rain at KOFK
will sweep north of TAF sites early. However redevelopment of
rain, showers and possibly thunderstorms between 21Z and 00Z is
expected. After 00Z, areas of drizzle and rain will affect KOMA
and KLNK, with freezing rain at KOFK, will persist through 08Z.
IFR to LIFR cigs are expected as well, continuing through the end
of the TAF period.


NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ015>018.

     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-012.



LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Dergan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.