Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 191704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1204 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Bulk of the forecast remains on track. Closed mid tropospheric low
continues to move east across southern MO. We have seen a decrease
in coverage of precipitation, but that will increase from west to
east tonight as the next area of lift develops. Some snow
accumulation possible, mainly in northeast NE tonight into Tuesday
morning. Precipitation should decrease from west to east Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Although Spring begins on Tuesday, it sure won`t feel like it in
this area.

Wet and dreary weather will hang on across the area for the next
couple of days before warmer temperatures and a bit more sun
arrive on Wednesday. Temperatures and extent and type of precip
will be the main forecast concerns during this period.

Upper circulation along the KS/OK border at 07Z will make steady
progress east today and reach eastern Missouri by mid afternoon.
This system will drag the bulk of the moisture with it but several
additional short waves over the northern plains will drop
southeast tonight into Tuesday providing the area with colder
temperatures and the chance of more light rain or snow. Periods of
light rain are expected to continue through the day for most of
the area although extreme eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa will
see some drying develop during the morning as easterly winds allow
drier air over Iowa to reach the Nebraska border. By tonight
however those upstream short wave troughs will begin to impact
the area as they move into the lower Missouri Valley.

Rain will overspread eastern areas by the evening with a mix or
rain and snow spreading into northeast Nebraska. The rain snow mix
will spread east overnight with snow becoming predominate in
northeast Nebraska after midnight with the snow spreading across
the rest of the area through early morning. Accumulations of 1 to
2 inches are possible in northern parts of the area where colder
temperatures will be in place the longest. An inch or less is
possible elsewhere where colder air will arrive later with temperatures
more borderline through the early part of the morning. Lingering
light rain or snow may extend into the afternoon for eastern areas
but little additional snow accumulation is expected due to warmer

The last of the disturbances moves out of the area Tuesday night
and after a rather cold morning on Wednesday, temperatures are
forecast to climb into the 50s during the afternoon, much more

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Warmer temperatures are expected for the middle part of the week
into the weekend, but the pattern looks to remain wet. The chance
of showers and thunderstorms will return by Thursday night and
continue into the weekend. Model solutions show little agreement
however by Saturday and Sunday so forecast confidence will be on
the low side during this time period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Conditions have temporarily improved to VFR at KOMA and KLNK but
will deteriorate back down to IFR tonight with development of rain
and then a rain/snow mix. KOFK is likely to go to MVFR for at
least a short period later this afternoon, then go back to IFR.
Conditions should slowly improve from west to east Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday evening.




LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Miller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.