Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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195
FXUS63 KOAX 251119
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
619 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Showers and thunderstorms skirted the forecast area overnight, as a
weak shortwave and surface front moved through the region. A few
weak storms meandered into the CWA, fueled by 1000-2000 J/kg of
instability, but all were short-lived.  Temperatures remained
relatively warm through the early morning hours, only dipping into
the mid to upper 60s. A few brief storms will continue to be
possible through the early morning hours.

Behind the departing shortwave, an upper level ridge will build
across the region this afternoon.  At the surface, winds will
generally be out of the southwest, before a weak front settles into
northeast Nebraska this afternoon/evening, pulling winds around to
the north. Latest Hi-res models have begun to pick up on a few
storms popping up along the front, generally along and north of US
30. If precipitation does actually materialize, it would be fairly
brief. High temperatures will once again rise into the lower 90s
with clearing skies. It will be humid today with dewpoints pushing
into the upper 60s.

The ridge of high pressure is expected to linger over the forecast
area through much of the holiday weekend.  This will result in
generally dry weather, in addition to well above normal
temperatures. Highs are forecast to rise into the low to mid 90s,
within a degree or two of current records both Saturday and
Sunday. Slightly more comfortable conditions are expected Saturday
as Td`s dip closer to 60 degrees, but they will bounce back
towards 70 on Sunday near the Kansas/Nebraska border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

A large upper level low brewing over the western US will finally
shift northeast towards Montana Monday, breaking down the ridge over
the plains. Memorial Day looks to be hot again and fairly dry,
except for a slight chance of showers and storms across northeast
Nebraska. The remainder of next week could be more active with
multiple chances for precipitation, while temperatures remain above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Mid and high-level cloudiness should diminish this morning with
winds becoming southwest prior to veering to northwest by
afternoon. There is a small chance for isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon along a weak front moving through the area. Confidence
in that occurrence at any of the TAF sites is presently too low
to mention in the forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...Mead



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