Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 192304

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
604 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate
the weather regime in the near term, with skies remaining
mostly clear and temperatures cooler than normal. A progressive
trough will move across the southern U.S. Friday through
Sunday, and will bring low chances of showers and possible an
isolated thunderstorm to the forecast area Friday evening
into Saturday. Delayed onset of precipitation chances toward later
in the day on Friday, as it may take atmosphere time to saturate
given dry, easterly trajectory. Current thermal profiles indicate
precipitation should remain liquid through the entirety of the
event. Passage of mid-level thermal trough may lead to some
dynamic cooling, and will steepen lapse rates slightly; however,
not enough to mention thunder at time. Showers should taper to an
end by Saturday evening as upper low passes into the lower
Mississippi Valley. Upper ridging builds back into region by mid-
day Sunday, and expect a return to sunshine by Sunday afternoon
for most of the area. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal
Friday and Saturday, but may flirt with seasonal values by Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Upper level ridge will keep conditions dry on Monday, then a short
wave from northern stream will drop southeast across the plains
to merge into large scale trough across eastern U.S. The net
result is another chance of rain/showers late Monday into Tuesday.
Again thermal profiles support only liquid precipitation. Lapse
rates again marginal, but would not be surprised to hear a rumble
of thunder. Broad northwest flow builds across region late in the
period, but will contribute to downslope low level flow, which
should help temperatures to climb back toward seasonal highs
in the middle to upper 60s by late in the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF cycle. Light and
variable winds will gradually become southeast after 06z.




LONG TERM...Fortin
AVIATION...Kern is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.