Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 162002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
302 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Pleasant conditions are on tap over the region the next several
days thanks in part to an upper level ridge building from the
west. Expect highs to top out in the low/mid 80s Wed/Thu/Fri.

Thunderstorm chances return to the region on Thursday. Several
impulses ejecting from the base of an upper low situated over the
Great Basin will aid with destabilization, along with strong low
level moisture advection through the day up into the central High
Plains. And by afternoon, models prog MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg in
that region. Expect storm initiation to occur late afternoon from
central ND to southwest SD along axis of mid layer ageostrophic
lift coincident to stout boundary layer theta-e convergence. Storm
activity then expands southward into the NE panhandle by early
evening. Moisture feed will be plentiful to sustain convection as
it progress eastward overnight. HIRES ARW/NMM are in good
agreement line of storms will reach the western CWA sometime
around 12z Friday. However, as the low level jet settles down,
storm intensity is progged to decrease by afternoon, leaving
portions of the eastern CWA dry.

As the low level jet ramps back up again Friday night, models show
storms intensifying along a slow moving cold front extending from
central MN to southwest NE. Expect storms to slowly expand over
the rest of the CWA as the front pushes south. Given that the
boundary is slow in nature, along with a vigorous vort max
passing aloft, will be the focus for maintaining thunderstorms
through the day on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Storms are progged to continue Saturday night then shift eastward as
a dry/more stable air mass pushes in from the north. More
thunderstorms possible Monday night/Tuesday along a warm front
lifting out of KS.

Otherwise, a bit cooler Saturday with highs in the mid 60s north and
upper 70s south. On Sunday, highs in the mid 60s north with low 70s


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

VFR conditions through the period. Isolated showers or storms
could develop in the area, south of KOMA, but would not affect
that TAF site.




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