Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 141806
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
106 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Blizzard conditions and snow amounts are the primary forecast
concerns in the short term.

Very dynamic system continues to spin near the KS/NE border area
early this morning as shown in water vapor satellite imagery.
System did bring some thunderstorms to parts of the area in the
past 18 hours, mainly in southwest IA. Main 850 mb moisture axis
extended from the Gulf coast into MO last evening. Low was nearly
stacked at 700 mb and 500 mb last evening over southwest NE with
an area of height falls of 100 meters or more stretching from the
TX panhandle toward north central KS. At 300 mb, jet segments of
115 knots were noted from OK into KS and another was back over UT.
Surface analysis at 3 am showed a weakening low pressure center
over southeast NE with main low now over northern MO. Temperatures
were in the 30s across northeast NE with 40s elsewhere in the
local area, but readings were in the upper teens to upper 20s in
much of western and central NE.

Dry slot has been over much southeast NE and southwest IA since
mid to late evening yesterday, with a few convective elements
forming in IA and northeast NE. Snow amounts so far have been
fairly light with more sleet than snow in the northern parts of
northeast NE. As the main surface low tracks east and the mid
tropospheric low also tracks east, we should see an increase in
precipitation coverage. Some model guidance is suggesting a that a
second deformation zone will form from southeast NE into southwest
IA. So...did increase QPF a bit there but not as high as what the
00Z GFS showed. Temperatures have been a bit cooler than expected
for parts of the area early this morning. The NAM seemed to be
doing a decent job so trended readings toward a blend of the NAM
and some of the high resolution short range models. Forecast
soundings show some elevated instability with fairly steep mid
level lapse rates. This suggests some convective type precip may
occur with rain/sleet/snow the most likely outcomes. There is some
chance of freezing rain but at this time it does not look to be a
major impact. Winds will be increasing and that will need to be
monitored too. Wind gusts have been over 50 knots in parts of
central NE early this morning.

For headlines, kept the blizzard warning and winter storm warnings
in the same locations as earlier but added some counties to the
winter weather advisory. Will need to keep an eye on radar trends
and precip type today. Snow intensity will decrease from west to
east tonight, but may linger even into Sunday morning across
western IA, then Sunday night and Monday should be dry. Lows
tonight should range from around 20 to the lower 20s. If winds
drop off and clouds clear more than expected in northeast NE we
may have to decrease lows there. Looks for highs Sunday only in
the lower and mid 30s. Highs will warm on Monday with at least
partial sunshine to 40s north and upper 40s to lower 50s south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Our next chance of rain moves in by late Tuesday with a system
that moves out of the Rockies toward the northern Plains. This may
bring moderate precip amounts with rain south and a mix of rain
and snow north. Snow amounts expected to be light at this time.

There is another system that should move out in the central parts
of the Plains Friday into Saturday. This could be somewhat similar
to yesterday and today, but probably with less snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

LIFR/IFR/MVFR conditions through this afternoon and this evening
with the combination of snow/rain snow mix and blowing snow at all
three sites. Bands of precipitation will result in variability to
these conditions from hour to hour, however the trend will be for
the snow at KOFK to continue through the afternoon with a mix at
KOMA and KLNK changing to all snow with the lower visibilities
shifting from west to east and continuing into the evening hours
while improving this evening at KOFK. North winds 20 to 30kts with
gusts 30 to 40kts also contributing to the lower vsbys.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ045-
     052-053-066>068-078-088>090-092.

     Blizzard Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>033-042-043-050-065.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ034-044-
     051.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ055-
     056-069-079.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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