Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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851 FXUS63 KOAX 281130 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 630 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday, with the potential for a few brief, weak tornadoes. - Another round of showers and storms possible Tuesday/Wednesday. A few storms could be strong to severe. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Today through Monday... More robust storm development over parts of Kansas and Missouri effectively blocked stronger storms from developing over parts of the forecast area Saturday. Overnight lows dipped into the 50s, with scattered showers moving into eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue throughout the day today, as a surface low moves across the forecast area. There is a slight chance (5-15%) for a few isolated storms to develop ahead of the incoming dry line, and potentially produce hail up to the size of quarters, gusty winds, and perhaps a couple of weak tornadoes. While uncertainty in this scenario is fairly high, given the extensive cloud cover and stronger convection to our southeast, the best chance looks to be over far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, from around noon to 6 PM. Lingering showers and storms look to clear the forecast area by midnight tonight, with dry conditions prevailing through Monday. Highs today and tomorrow are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s for the majority of the region. Tuesday and Beyond... Precipitation chances return by mid week, with a cold front swinging through the Central Plains on Tuesday, followed by a warm front lifting back through the region ahead of the next surface low, Wednesday. While the details regarding timing and location remain unclear at this time, there will be the chance for showers and storms, a few of which could be strong to severe. Off and on precipitation chances continue through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s and low 70s each day, with Tuesday looking to be the only outlier, as highs could reach the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 MVFR to IFR ceilings will remain in place through much of the period, with some on and off rain this morning and thunderstorm chance late morning into the afternoon. Confidence in exact timing of storms is somewhat low, but included 2 hour TEMPO groups at each site to indicate most favored timing per latest short term guidance. Once storms exit this afternoon, expect lingering MVFR to IFR ceilings into the evening, though signs point to ceilings at LNK scattering out late in the evening. Otherwise, expect northeast (OFK) to southeast (OMA/LNK) winds generally under 12 kts ahead of storms, followed by northwest to west winds once storms pass. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...CA