Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 230433
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1133 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

20z surface analysis combined with satellite imagery shows a warm
front extending across northeast Nebraska into southwestern Iowa
with a few scattered showers along the boundary already this
afternoon. A few storms, possibly strong severe, are possible
across northeast Nebraska this afternoon into early evening where
SBCAPE values are around 3500-4000 J/kg. Latest runs of the CAMs
continue to show suppressed thunderstorm development along the
warm front where effective bulk shear values are around 35kts.
Satellite imagery looks stable and so have doubts anything will
fire in our CWA provided the apparent capping in place. If any
activity were to get going, it should be fairly short-lived as
the warm front lifts out of our area to our north. An increasing
nocturnal low-level jet will sustain this activity to our north
into the overnight hours. Several models also hint on overnight
development across central Nebraska likely associated with an
approaching weak mid- level shortwave. The models shift this
northeast into our far northwestern counties toward sunrise. Did
add mention a small pop toward sunrise for this activity.

Wednesday looks dry and very warm as mid-level heights continue to
rise. Highs should top out in the upper 80s. Much of Thursday looks
dry as well with an approaching short-wave trough moving in by
Thursday evening. Widespread pops will continue from Thursday
evening into Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Upper-level ridging builds overhead through the weekend. This
should keep much of the region capped with high temperatures
mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Current water vapor imagery depicts a subtle short-wave trough
moving through central NE with an associated increase in shower
and thunderstorm development noted immediately downstream from the
impulse over north-central NE. It appears that any subsequent
convective development will remain to the west of the TAF sites
overnight with a general increase in mid and high-level clouds. On
Wednesday, winds will become gusty from the south by late morning
in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the northern High
Plains. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Mead


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