868
FXUS64 KEPZ 110009
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
609 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Besides a few showers and thunderstorms far east and northern
areas over the next day, dry conditions will continue for much of
the next week. Temperatures will remain near average with 80s for
the lowlands and 70s in the mountains. Winds will continue to be
breezy to low end windy through the period as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Upper low currently spinning around KLAS with SW flow aloft, but
this has also allowed the dryline to push west into the CWA.
Moisture not overly deep, especially from the Rio Grande westward.
The models are not handling this feature real well, but this is
one of the times the NAM does a decent job. What this means is the
moisture will start to quickly push back to the west around sunset
and possibly make it out to the AZ border. Gusty east winds
expected behind it, especially on the west slopes of the Franklins
and the Organs. Could see gusts over 40 mph this evening, but they
will gradually decrease overnight. Models putting out some light
QPF east and north tonight and again Sat afternoon. There is a
weak disturbance and some elevated instability which could be
tapped in Hudspeth and Otero counties, so kept in mention, but did
taper back from mid shift and NBM. For Sat, the upper low off to
the west starts to move east and upper flow increases which will
push moisture out of much of the CWA, but still linger out along
the eastern border where some more showers and t-storms are
possible. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s to
around 90 for the lowlands, but in the far east, could struggle to
get out of the lower 80s.

Sunday the upper low passes to our north and this will push any
residual moisture off to the east. Temperatures will cool slightly
but winds will be in the 15-25 mph range. West to slightly
northwest winds should help to keep dust to a minimum. Models
agree in some marginal moisture making it into the far northern
CWA for early next week as a trough moves through the northern and
central Rockies with a weaker southern branch crossing along the
International Border later in the week. Kept in the 10-20 pops
for most every day next week. Do not see much of an impact from
rainfall, but may need to watch a dry lightning potential.
Temperatures remain near normal.

Models differ going into Friday with the operational GFS bringing
an elongated trough down through the CWA with plenty of precip.
This solution is by far an outlier compared to it`s ensembles and
the EC solution. Will lean more toward the NBM and EC which push
trough through the area and allow temperatures to remain warm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period, with SCT100 SCT-
BKN250. Surface winds southeast 10-15G25 knots east of the Rio
Grande Valley, and west/southwest 7-10 knots from the Rio Grande
Valley west. Winds becoming southeast all areas by 12Z as the
dry-line reaches the Arizona border. After 18Z...SCT080 SCT250.
Slight possibility of isolated BKN060CB -TSRA, mainly from a
Alamogordo-Sierra Blanca line east. Surface winds turning back
southwest 10-15G25 knots as dry-line reverts back eastward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

There will be another moisture push through much of the area this
evening, but it will be short lived and any precip will remain far
east. This moisture will quickly get pushed out of the area by
Sunday with breezy conditions continuing. Another system will
bring in some very marginal moisture for early next week from the
north. At this time, the best precip chances for our zones would
be Catron and Lincoln counties, but these chances aren`t great. In
fact, the potential exists that some dry lightning could occur
Mon/Tue. Little change going into Wednesday, although this does
look like the windiest day of the next 5 as winds of 15-30 mph are
possible. RH`s will remain at or below 15 percent for the period
except far east Saturday and then in the mountains where 10-20%
will be more prevalent through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  61  90  58  87 /  10  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            57  84  55  82 /  20  20  20   0
Las Cruces               56  88  50  86 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               54  84  49  83 /  30  30  10   0
Cloudcroft               42  61  38  59 /  30  30  20   0
Truth or Consequences    53  84  52  83 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              46  78  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   50  87  47  84 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                47  83  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       60  87  55  85 /  10  10   0   0
Dell City                56  83  51  86 /  30  30  10   0
Fort Hancock             58  92  52  88 /  10  20  10   0
Loma Linda               55  81  51  79 /  20  20  10   0
Fabens                   59  91  54  88 /  10  10  10   0
Santa Teresa             56  86  49  83 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  87  57  84 /  10  10   0   0
Jornada Range            53  85  44  84 /  20  10   0   0
Hatch                    52  87  45  85 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus                 54  87  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                58  84  50  82 /  20  20  10   0
Mayhill                  45  71  43  71 /  40  40  20   0
Mescalero                44  71  42  70 /  30  30  20   0
Timberon                 43  71  40  69 /  30  30  10   0
Winston                  46  76  40  76 /  10  10   0   0
Hillsboro                49  82  45  80 /  10  10   0   0
Spaceport                50  83  46  82 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             35  76  33  75 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   43  81  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    41  82  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               40  77  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  47  79  44  77 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   47  84  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  49  85  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           48  85  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner