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000
FXUS63 KIWX 180612
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
212 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms return this evening, ending before
  sunrise Friday.

- Dry and cool this weekend with morning frost likely Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Deepening sw trough through srn Canada will intensify upper jet from
the Dakotas to the Great Lakes through tonight. Robust warm
advection developing swd will lead to substantial low level
moistening by this evening. Vigorous convection across ne KS early
this morning looks to expand newd near term yet decay by aftn as it
progresses out of returning low level theta-e ridge. Nevertheless
secondary development wwd within expanding/destabilizing warm sector
through the mid MS and wrn OH valley this aftn will push east
quickly this evening. Some severe risk indicated generally south of
the US24 corridor in Indiana with hail and isolated wind predicated.

Initial post frontal cold advection push on Fri decays yet is
followed by a second and much colder push Saturday. Placement of
cold Canadian high centered over NE and weak gradient flow here will
stave off a sig freeze yet widespread frost looks likely Sun morning.
Otherwise amplified flow through se Canada keeps area cool and dry
until Tue when another nrn stream wave drops out of the upper
midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing at both TAF sites as ceilings
continue to climb overnight. By 10Z at both terminals, ceilings
should be at or above 5-6 kft and will keep rising throughout
the day as clouds dissipate for the first part of the day on
Thursday. Winds will continue to diminish in the next few hours,
although a few gusts up to 15-20 kts are not out of the question
before daybreak. As a cold front approaches Thursday evening,
ceilings will quickly drop to MVFR and even approach IFR by the
time rain/storms start after 00Z Friday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist through the end of the TAF cycle and
into early Friday morning.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Johnson