Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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476 ACUS01 KWNS 100558 SWODY1 SPC AC 100557 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH FL AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH GA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind are possible today across parts of south Georgia into north Florida. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and hail are also possible across northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level trough will persist over the eastern CONUS today. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave will move southeastward from the mid MS Valley toward the Southeast, while an upstream shortwave trough (an attendant weak surface low) will move across the northern Great Plains and upper MS Valley. In the wake of extensive early morning convection, a cold front will move southward across parts of the Southeast and Texas. ...Parts of GA/north FL... An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere across south GA/north FL, supported by favorable moisture/instability and strong westerly flow aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and intensity of this system later this morning. While the GA/north FL area saw extensive convection and related outflow on Thursday, some recovery is possible prior to the arrival of the MCS, which will support potential for at least scattered damaging gusts before the MCS moves offshore. Depending on the timing and southeastward progression of the MCS, some redevelopment will be possible along the synoptic cold front during the afternoon, from southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Parts of the Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supporting storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging gusts and hail. ...South-central TX... A cold front that will move through south-central TX is forecast to slow down through the day, before potentially stalling late tonight. Elevated convection may develop near/north of the front through the day. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a strong storm or two with isolated hail as the primary threat. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection may develop across parts of MN/WI this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 $$