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000
FXUS64 KOHX 210513
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1213 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Not a ton going on at update time. The system to our south looks
like it won`t affect us much, but CAM trends continue to suggest a
few light showers will be possible south of I-40 overnight,
especially closer to the Alabama state line. The chance of anyone
seeing these showers will end before sunrise and while some clouds
will still be around tomorrow, everyone should remain dry with
temperatures similar to what we saw today. Have a great evening!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A heavier than expected band of showers and isolated thunderstorms
formed across Middle Tennessee early this morning. The west to
east band formed on the cool side of a surface frontal zone,
generally along the 850mb cold front with help from a weak
shortwave. These features moved away quickly and most areas have
become partly to mostly sunny.

Another chance for showers will spread across the area tonight
into early Sunday morning. In this case, the front and upper
level impulse will be located farther south, so we expect just
scattered coverage of light showers with generally less than one
tenth of an inch. North of I-40 will see just a few sprinkles.
Lows tonight will be in the cool 40s as a north breeze continues.

AFter a few early morning sprinkles or light showers on Sunday,
skies will once again become partly to mostly sunny. Persistent
north winds will take us deeper into a cool air mass, so temps
will be around 10 degrees below normal with highs in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

Sunday night will be the coldest night of this forecast period.
The center of high pressure that has been coming our way from
Canada this weekend will settle over the Mid South. Lighter winds
and clearer skies will allow patchy frost to form with most
locations dipping to the mid and upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Temperatures will warm next week with highs expected to be back
into the 70s by Tuesday and into the 80s by the weekend. Most of
next week looks fairly quiet. Tuesday night features an upper-
level trough sending a weak cold front through the area. This may
result in a few light showers Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

For the next significant chance of rain and thunderstorms, we
have to look ahead to next weekend as a large upper-level low digs
into the southwestern US, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft
and moisture advection across Middle TN. This will set the stage
for a more active and potentially stormy pattern for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Northerly
winds will be gusty at around 15 to 20 knots Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  41  68  45 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    61  37  66  43 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     56  35  62  39 /  30   0   0   0
Columbia       61  37  67  41 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     58  36  63  41 /  20   0   0   0
Jamestown      57  35  63  39 /  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   61  38  66  41 /  20   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   62  37  67  40 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        61  38  67  44 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Clements