-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
912
FXUS61 KOKX 110836
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
436 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
1. Small Craft Advisories issued for today for NY Harbor and
the Long Island South shore Bays, and extended for the ocean
waters through this afternoon.

2. Raised temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday, with some
record high temperatures possible on Wednesday, and some record
high minimums possible each day.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry and mild with elevated fire weather concerns for
portions of the area today, then cooler on Sunday.

2. Noticeably warmer next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold front just tarting to enter Orange County as of 07Z and
should be through the entire CWA by daybreak. A gusty/drying NW
flow will take hold after fropa, with RH lowering to 25-30% over
most of the area as temps rise to the upper 50s/lower 60s and
dewpoints drop to 25-30, with peak wind gusts 25-30 mph this
morning into early afternoon. Special wx statement already
issued for NY/CT.

Winds will diminish toward evening as high pressure builds in
tonight into Sunday morning, then moves offshore Sunday
afternoon. A return flow off the ocean will keep temperatures
from getting out of the 50s on Sunday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A noticeable warmup is still on track for next week as
overnight lows and daytime highs will be at least 10 degrees to
as much as 20-25 degrees above normal inland, with the warmest
days Wed/Thu. Upper ridging will be in place with nearly zonal
flow Monday into Tuesday as a series of warm front pass through,
with reinforcing ridging Wed/Thu. H8 temperatures on Wed should
peak near 15C and may reach 17C-18C on Thu, with inland
temperatures potentially reaching into the mid/upper 80s both
days per blend of NBM 90th percentile and 00Z GFS/ECMWF MOS
guidance. Inland areas will be the warmest as the low level
flow remains southwest, while coastal areas will be cooler, but
still well above normal levels, with a southerly sea breeze
influenced flow.

A surface trough developing Tue/Wed afternoons, along with
convergence with local sea breezes, may be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening,
though chance PoP is confined to inland sections attm. Cold
fropa later this week may be delayed until Thu night per latest
ECMWF.

Friday is expected to be cooler behind the cold front, but with
highs still reaching 75-80 inland.

A few daily record highs mat be tied or broken on Wed, as well
as record high minimum temperatures Tue through Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves across early this morning. High pressure builds
in from the west today into tonight.

VFR thru the TAF period.

Winds shift to the NW as the cold front progresses east, increasing
to 10-15 kt this morning. Gusts develop this morning at 20 to 25 kt,
with a chance that gusts begin an hour or two earlier than indicated
in TAFs, especially at the western terminals.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late Saturday night: VFR. NNW winds diminish to under 10kt.

Sunday: VFR. SE winds 10-20kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 20kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 10-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued SCA for NY Harbor and the Long Island south shore bays
from 8 Am until 2 PM for near shore post-frontal winds gusting
to 25 kt. Meanwhile, hazardous ocean seas of 5 ft should
continue through the day today, so SCA has been extended there
until 6 PM.

A strengthening S-SW flow could bring marginal SCA conditions
(both wind gusts and seas) to the ocean waters Mon into Mon
night, also possibly via gusts Mon afternoon to the south
shore/eastern bays of Long Island and the non ocean waters E of
Orient Point. Seas on the eastern ocean waters may not fall
below 5 ft until early Tue morning.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for ANZ338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Goodman
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...Goodman