000
FXUS64 KOUN 100830
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
330 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Periods of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
today as the center of the closed upper low translates across north
Texas. With little to weak instability, severe weather is not
expected and the marginal risk has been removed from southeastern
Oklahoma. Low clouds will slowly lift from west (by mid-day) to
east (evening) as the storm system pulls away from our region and
clear skies return tonight into tomorrow morning. Guidance has
trended cooler for temperatures today due to plentiful cloud-
cover, rain, and CAA. Highs will range from the upper 50`s (east-
central to southern Oklahoma) to near 70 degrees (northwest
Oklahoma).

Breezy north winds are also expected with gusts increasing over
southern and southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon as the surface
cyclone deepens to our southeast. Although a few locations could
observe 35 to 40 mph gusts, the duration should be limited and a
wind advisory is not needed. As the system pulls away, winds
diminish tonight.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A northern stream shortwave crosses the north-central plains and
pushes a weak cold front into our area early Thursday morning with
sunny skies expected on Thursday. This surge of cooler air will
introduce another day of gusty north-northwest winds and keep
temperatures seasonably cool (though warmer than today). Surface
dewpoints will decrease on Thursday, but only briefly. Then, a
pattern shift occurs Thursday night and Friday as an upper ridge
approaches and the associated surface high passes. As a result,
winds shift to the south, and with the aid of WAA and moisture
advection, temperatures and dewpoints increase on Friday with
daytime highs rising to 10 to 15 degrees higher than Thursday.

Low-level southerly flow increases further this weekend and
temperatures heat up into the 80s/90s on Sunday with a moist air
mass arriving ahead of the next storm system.

This system is expected to be a strong upper-closed low which
advances towards the Rockies and ejects late Monday across the
south-central plains. Thunderstorms, possibly severe, could
develop along a dryline on Monday and affect most of our FA as the
dryline advances eastward. At this time, all severe hazards
appear possible.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Area of thunderstorms approaching the OKC metro is expected to
pass within the next few hours. Then, periods of light rain and
drizzle for the rest of the night with ceilings lowering to
IFR/MVFR before or near dawn. Rain is expected to gradually shift
eastward tomorrow and end from west (mid-day) to east (early
evening).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  48  66  45 /  70  10   0   0
Hobart OK         64  44  68  43 /  50  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  47  70  46 /  60  10   0   0
Gage OK           70  41  68  42 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     65  47  67  39 /  50  10   0   0
Durant OK         65  50  70  45 /  80  40   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01