738
FXUS61 KILN 141059
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
659 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will slowly track across the Ohio Valley
through Wednesday, bringing unsettled weather to the region.
Dry weather returns Thursday with high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure over Missouri and Arkansas is getting more
organized as it moves slowly toward Kentucky. Moisture and
vertical motion are increasing sporadically across our portion
of the Ohio Valley, producing a band of showers that is now
scraping east sections of the FA. Radar indicates that there
will be lengthy lull in showers, probably until this afternoon
when increasing forcing and deeper moisture coincide with
daytime heating, leading to more widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. There will be a marginal threat for severe
weather, including the possibility for brief tornadoes,
primarily over Northern Kentucky. Isolated heavy downpours are
also possible from slow moving, moisture-laden cells.

Temperatures limited by cloud cover are forecast to reach the
near normal upper 60s to mid 70s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger this evening,
with isolated severe storms and heavy downpours possible. For
early tonight, coverage and intensity of convection should
diminish with loss of daytime heating. Later tonight through
Wednesday, a resurgence of showers and thunderstorms is
indicated as the low spins slowly through Kentucky. Main area of
concern for this round appears to be over southeast counties
that will be adjacent to the deeper moisture and short wave
forcing associated with this system. Heavy downpours will
continue to be possible.

Similar to Tuesday, highs on Wednesday are expected to rise to
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper low will be just east of the area at the beginning of the
period but moving east. This will be in close enough proximity for
some showers to still linger into Wednesday night in eastern
counties. Ridging will briefly pass across the area on Thursday, but
low level moisture will remain high through the day which may lead
to clouds being quite stubborn to diminish.

Short wave will eject out ahead of a deepening trough in the central
US and lift across the region on Thursday night. This will bring the
beginning of an unsettled period. The main trough will likely move
into and across the area Friday night with showers and thunderstorms
possible throughout this entire period and even into Saturday.
However, guidance has been struggling with this trough with some
runs occasionally deepening and closing off a low within the trough
and thus slowing down progression. The operational 00Z GFS is the
latest example of that. Still a large enough majority of guidance
suggests that conditions will improve Saturday night and into Sunday
that it seems more likely. Regardless of the speed of the trough,
guidance does come into better agreement with ridging across the
region by Monday.

Temperatures will be above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aviation will be impacted by low pressure tracking to Kentucky.
Scattered light showers are currently in the vicinity of TAF
sites. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are forming this
morning as the lower atmosphere moistens. There should be
improvement back to VFR this afternoon as mixing increases.

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast for this
afternoon and evening as instability rises with daytime
heating. Winds backing from south to east may remain under 10
knots through the period. MVFR conditions return near the end of
the forecast as moisture continues to stream ahead of the low.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible with thunderstorms
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio