511
FXUS64 KOHX 140657
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
157 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

First half of the night appears to be rather quiet. Winds are light
south and temperatures are holding generally in the lower to mid
60s. The next system is knocking on the door and is located over MO
with some stacking noted. Prefrontal activity reaches into far
western TN at this hour. Models depict better instability to our
west with more stable conditions across the mid state. Latest
outlook keeps us in a general risk through sunrise. This looks
reasonable but will keep an eye on the upstream area as a marginal
risk through 12z is in effect for far western portions of TN.

Today, a marginal risk will cover the entire area. Instability
levels will increase markedly through 21Z. Organization/lift does
pick up across our west by mid afternoon. 850 mb speeds are only
around 15KTs or so. Moreover, 0-1km helicity values are below 100
M(2)/S(2). MLLR do approach 7C so could be some hailers and/or
strong winds as well. At any rate, storm trajectories at that time
should be toward the ENE. Timing looks like early afternoon in
our west with the threat exiting the Plateau early this evening.
Total average precip amounts through Wednesday look like one half
inch or so. However, Hrrr does show some isolated 1-2 inch amounts
with the heavier storms this afternoon.

Moving on, the fropa is expected late tonight but the associated
organization looks weak. Scattered showers and a few general
tstms will preclude the fropa before midnight with diminishing
activity afterwards.

On Wednesday, upper shortwave will drop southward within the post
frontal sector. Shower chances and a few tstms will therefore
return. Following this the pattern will begin to morph toward some
upper level ridging and partial clearing by Thursday.

For the near term temps, we`ll be very close to normal for mid May
through Wednesday night. Then, with the upper ridging on Thursday,
we`ll warm up into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

For the Extended period, another storm system will be on approach on
Friday. Just like its predecessor, the storm will stack vertically
with the pva feed a bit cut off. As a result, the surface low
appears to weaken some as it moves east. There still appears to be
some appreciable organization for Friday and Saturday with the
frontal and pre frontal lift. Phasing for severe however, does not
look promising at this time. Furthermore, SPC outlooks are inactive
for the Day 4-8 period. The precip will end by Sunday with ridging
returning.

The extended temperatures will trend from seasonal during the
weekend, to several degrees above normal for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Current VFR/MVFR cigs will lower to MVFR later this morning as
SHRA gradually spread across the area. Improvement back to VFR is
anticipated by afternoon but widespread SHRA/TSRA will impact
airports with tempo MVFR/IFR conditions and variable gusty winds
to 25 knots. Showers will end late in the TAF period. South to
southeast winds up to 10 knots are expected through tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      77  61  77  60 /  90  60  20   0
Clarksville    74  59  75  59 /  80  40  20   0
Crossville     71  56  71  56 /  90  80  50  20
Columbia       77  59  77  58 /  80  50  10   0
Cookeville     74  58  72  57 /  80  80  50  10
Jamestown      73  56  71  56 /  90  80  60  20
Lawrenceburg   75  59  76  58 /  80  50  10   0
Murfreesboro   77  59  77  59 /  90  70  20  10
Waverly        74  59  76  58 /  90  40  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Shamburger