171
FXUS62 KTBW 130707
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
307 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The work week will start out quite a bit more humid compared to
yesterday as deeper moisture returns. As the high pressure moves
further over the Atlantic the flow becomes more S/SE and winds
increase as the gradient tightens. Rain chances also increase
tomorrow as the sea breezes collide along the interior. Some storms
developing along these boundaries could become severe as extra
energy provided by mid-level impulses move over the area, supporting
elevated CAPE values and effective bulk shear. With all these
ingredients coming together, Storm prediction Center has placed
portions of our CWA in a marginal risk for severe weather this
afternoon. Main concern will be along the nature coast and the
interior where sea breeze collisions are expected. Main threat
will be for hail, damaging wind gusts and a possible tornado.


Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough moves east scraping
across northern portions of the peninsula. A surface low with
accompanying this short wave is expected to move over the area
bringing another round of showers and storms. SPC has also marked
areas mainly north of I4 as a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms, Tuesday and portions of Levy county and areas
northward, Wednesday.

Conditions begin to dry out Thursday into Friday as ridging tries to
build back over the area. Temperatures remain on the above average
side, with highs in the low to mid 90s more most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Vfr conditions prevail. SE winds will begin to increase and move
onshore by the afternoon. Some afternoon convection is likely,
but will likely occur inland, away form most terminals, except
maybe LAL. Tuesday into Wednesday more showers and thunderstorms
are possible, especially for areas north of I4 and inland.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Pressure gradient tightens today allowing for increased SE winds
that will turn onshore as the sea breeze develops. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will move into northern waters beginning
tonight with another round likely tomorrow into Wednesday.
Increased winds will also support increased wave heights.
Unfavorable marine conditions will likely last until the end of
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

No major fire weather concerns through the week as RH values
remain above critical levels. Shower and thunderstorms are
expected to move over portions of the CWA beginning tonight and
continuing through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  90  79 /  30  30  30  40
FMY  95  77  94  79 /  20  10  10  10
GIF  93  74  95  76 /  50  30  40  30
SRQ  93  77  91  77 /  20  10  20  30
BKV  94  70  93  73 /  40  30  50  50
SPG  90  80  89  80 /  20  20  30  40

&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Close