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000
FXUS65 KABQ 121716 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1116 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Mostly dry and warmer weather will prevail today through the
weekend, however breezy to windy conditions will start to develop
with today being the windiest. Occasional gusts of 25 to 35 mph
will be common this afternoon. A few showers may struggle to
develop today, but if they do, any rainfall is expected to mostly
evaporate before reaching the ground. Winds will not be quite as
strong Saturday and Sunday, but still gusty. The periodic gusty
winds will lead to concerns for rapid fire spread due to dry
conditions in many areas, especially today. Weather conditions
will undergo big changes on Monday when a cold front brings more
widespread and stronger winds with just a few meager light rain
and snow showers. Temperatures will cool below average in western
and central New Mexico on Monday before fighting their way back to
normal on Tuesday. Windy conditions look to persist through the
middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The warming trend will continue today as a ridge of high pressure
begins shifting east of NM and an upper level trough approaches from
the southwest. The upper trough will strengthen the flow aloft,
there will be strong atmospheric mixing in high temperatures
around 5-15 degrees above 1991-2020 averages, and a surface trough
will develop in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, all
causing south and southwest winds to become breezy to windy this
afternoon until sunset. Peak gusts may reach up to 45 mph over the
southern tier of mountains and across northeast areas. The
atmosphere will also be dry and unstable enough for fire weather
concerns this afternoon, especially across central and northeast
areas.

Tonight, the upper trough is forecast to cross with some cloud
cover. Models suggest there will be some gusty and high-based virga
showers producing little more than sprinkles at the surface over
northwest areas from the Tusas Mountains to the Four Corners. The
best chance for actual brief rain showers will be around Dulce and
Chama. Erratic and localized mostly dry microburst wind gusts up to
45 mph will be possible near any showers.

In the wake of the upper level trough, winds will weaken on Saturday
while remaining gusty. High temperatures will trend downward a few
to around 7 degrees across central and western areas, while readings
remain a few to around 13 degrees above 30-year averages area-
wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The Pacific low will move inland on Sunday with one center of
circulation moving over southern CA and the other pivoting into
northern NV. This will cause the flow to back more from the
southwest on Sunday while the seemingly ever present lee-side
surface trough reestablishes, but the speed of the flow looks low
enough (15-25 kt) to just keep mostly breezy conditions going at
the surface. As for temperatures, only a degree or two of warming
is expected.

The CA and NV lows look to merge again Sunday night into Monday
with the deepening and more concentric low trekking over the Four
Corners. This still looks to introduce light rain and snow showers
over western to north central NM, and with the added cooling
aloft in the core of the upper low, instability should be
sufficient for a few thunderstorms. This will all likely be
secondary to the impacts arriving with the upward surge in winds.
The 700 mb jet still is expected to precede and accompany the low
with southwesterly speeds of 35-50 kt buffeting many central and
eastern areas. The surface low will be over northeastern CO by
late Monday, well displaced from the upper low, and the resulting
pressure gradient across NM still looks ominous with a nearly 18
mb difference from western to northeastern parts of the state.
Widespread Wind Advisories look in order for a large majority of
eastern NM with possible High Wind Warning criteria being met in
the south central mountains and surrounding highlands Monday.

While the upper low will quickly eject northeastward into Monday
night and Tuesday, winds will be unable to fully subside, as
northwesterlies will remain brisk with a new lee side surface
trough modeled to rapidly deepen east of the Sangre de Cristos.
This will be in response to the next deep upstream lows that will
be dropping out of British Columbia and Alberta into northwestern
states Tuesday and then crossing into the northern Great Plains
Wednesday. Northwesterly winds on Tuesday would be strongest over
the central highlands and mountains, turning more westerly by
Wednesday with widespread gusts of 30-45 mph possible each day.
Precipitation would dip into CO on Wednesday, but would stay north
of NM. A cold front would then plunge into eastern zones Wednesday
night into Thursday, remaining dry while setting temperatures back
several degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The main impacts the next 24 hrs will be due to strong winds,
turbulence, high-based dry showers, and patchy BLDU. South to
southwest winds will gust to between 25 and 35 kt at most
terminals by 21Z then taper off after sunset. An Airport Weather
Warning may be needed for the ABQ Sunport however confidence on
the occurrence of wind gusts of 35 kt is marginal at this time.
AIRMETs show high level turbulence transitioning to low level
turbulence after 00Z along the central mt chain as mt wave action
strengthens this evening. There will be just enough mid level
moisture in place to allow for virga showers to develop aft 22Z
with gusty downburst winds across the high terrain of northwest NM
thru 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...

South and southwest winds will become breezy to windy today as a
mostly dry upper level trough approaches from the southwest, mixing
heights reach around 14,000-15,000 feet, and a surface trough
develops in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. High
temperatures around 5-15 degrees above 1991-2020 averages are
expected with Haines Indices of mostly 6. With minimum humidities
around 10-12 percent expected, will keep the Red Flag Warnings in
effect across central and northeast areas this afternoon until
sunset. Locally critical fire weather conditions are also expected
elsewhere across the fire weather forecast area this afternoon,
except for widespread critical across the east central plains where
the maximum fire risk category is still limited due to widespread 1
inch plus rainfall amounts earlier in the week, and presumably some
greenup.

In the wake of the upper trough high temperatures will remain above
30-year averages Saturday and Sunday, and southwest winds are
forecast to weaken some while remaining gusty enough for locally
critical fire weather conditions in some places each afternoon.
Widespread critical fire weather conditions will then be possible
across the Rio Grande Valley and east Monday as an upper level low
pressure system passing eastward along the CO/NM border draws the
jet stream over southern and eastern NM. Cooler temperatures and
higher humidities are forecast with a chance for light rain and snow
showers in the northern and west central mountains, as well as the
northwest highlands and plateau, Monday and Monday night. Tuesday
and Wednesday critical fire weather conditions may become more
widespread as a broad upper low crossing the northern Rockies draws
the polar jetstream over NM and CO from the west. A strong backdoor
cold front forecast to push into central parts of the state
Wednesday night and Thursday should then ease fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  79  41  72  38 /   5  10   0   0
Dulce...........................  74  36  70  30 /   5  20   0   0
Cuba............................  71  38  67  35 /   0   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  76  33  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  71  34  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  75  33  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  73  33  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  73  42  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  70  37  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  76  33  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  81  47  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  67  33  64  30 /   0  20   0   0
Los Alamos......................  70  44  68  40 /   0   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  72  41  68  38 /   5   5   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  65  45  63  39 /   0   5   0   0
Red River.......................  62  32  60  29 /   0   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  63  29  60  21 /   0   5   0   0
Taos............................  71  36  69  31 /   0   5   0   0
Mora............................  70  39  68  35 /   5   5   0   0
Espanola........................  78  42  75  38 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  73  44  70  40 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  76  43  73  38 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  50  75  47 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  47  77  46 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  46  80  38 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  48  78  45 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  82  44  80  41 /   0   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  81  47  78  44 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  82  44  80  38 /   0   5   0   0
Corrales........................  82  48  78  44 /   0   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  82  45  80  39 /   0   5   0   0
Placitas........................  76  48  73  44 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  81  48  78  45 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  83  47  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  45  67  43 /   0   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  74  44  70  44 /   0   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  76  41  71  40 /   5   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  37  73  37 /   5   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  72  39  69  37 /   5   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  74  41  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  73  41  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  78  49  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  71  45  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  72  41  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  76  38  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  76  38  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  73  40  71  38 /   0   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  78  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  76  43  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  83  46  83  43 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  79  43  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  81  47  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  80  47  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  83  48  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  80  44  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  84  49  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  80  47  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  78  47  78  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-
123>125.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...42