597
FXUS61 KAKQ 052001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
401 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Off and on showers are expected to continue through tonight.
Summerlike conditions return to the area for next week with
daily chances of showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Late this aftn, a warm front was lifting back north across the
region. Latest radar showed sctd showers and isolated tstms
moving ENE through wrn/cntrl portions of the CWA. Heavier
showers were occurring over scntrl VA into NE NC. Temps were
ranging from the mid to upper 60s over the Piedmont and portions
of the Lower MD and VA ern shore, and ranging through the 70s
elsewhere.

This shortwave energy within the SW flow aloft helping to
produce the pcpn, will shift ewrd this evening and off the coast
by early Mon morning. Thus, the showers/storms will continue ENE
through this evening, and should be offshore by early Mon
morning. Heavier showers will dissipate by late this evening.
Remaining mild tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Continued unsettled pattern with on and off rain Monday
  through Wednesday

- A warming trend expected with above normal temps and humid
  conditions

Mon and Tue mark the start of a summer-like pattern that will
persist through at least Thu. Multiple rounds of shortwaves in
a mainly zonal flow aloft plus a lee trough, will lead to off
and on shower/storm chances. These will likely follow a generally
diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late
evening. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Mon,
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. HREF mean CAPE shows
values over 1000 J/KG, but shear will be weak. Therefore,
severe weather is not expected outside of a strong storm or two.
Lows Mon night in the lower to mid 60s. Increasingly warmer and
humid for Tue and Wed, with chances for mainly aftn/evening
showers and tstms. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s
Tue, and in the mid 80s to near 90 Wed. At this time, there will
be the potential for strong or severe storms Wed and Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Sunday...

An unsettled, summertime continues through the rest of the
week. A ridge aloft starts to break down Wed. The GFS and ECMWF
both suggest stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed-Thurs.
Additionally, several waves of weak shortwave energy will pass
over the area. As of latest guidance, the strongest of these
looks to pass through Thu ahead of an UL trough dropping into
the Great Lakes. A stronger system (i.e. cold front) will then
cross the area Thu night into Fri. These features along with
plentiful daytime heating/instability will allow for daily
rounds of showers/tstms. Will be monitoring this time period for
severe weather given the support aloft and steep mid-level
lapse rates. The CSU Machine Learning Probabilities have picked
up on the aforementioned parameter space and suggest at least a
slight risk for severe weather Thu for the entire area. Mainly
dry weather will return for Sat. Highs will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s Wed and Thu, in the upper 70s to lower 80s Fri, and
in the lower to mid 70s Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday...

A warm front will push N of the area by this evening. However,
the warm front combined with shortwave energy/moisture/lift,
will produce sctd showers and tstms into tonight. So, expect
VFR to MVFR conditions with the pcpn into tonight. Then, expect
MVFR or IFR CIGs to return to the TAF sites later tonight into
Mon morning, due to lingering low level moisture behind the
exiting pcpn. Winds will be SE-S this aftn into Mon morning,
then become SW by later Mon morning. through the period and
gusty at the coast this afternoon. Expect mainly VFR or MVFR
conditions for Mon aftn, along with the return chance of
showers or tstms.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns Tue through
Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

1028mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia this aftn,
with a warm front and surface trough from central VA into
central NC. The wind is SSE 15kt with gusts up to 20kt and seas
are 3-4ft, with waves in the Ches. Bay approximately 2-3ft. The
warm front will continue to lift back N tonight with the wind
becoming more from the S at 10-15 kt, and then to the SSW by
Monday. The wind will average ~10 kt with gusts less than 20 kt
through much the week so outside of any tstms, conditions will
be sub-SCA. The wind may increase a bit Thursday into Friday as
the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of a stronger
cold front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for the northern
  Neck and Bay-side of the Maryland Eastern Shore through late
  tonight/early Monday for minor flooding.

Ebb tides have been stronger than flood tides over the past 24
hours, and this has led to a slight decrease in tidal anomalies
over the Bay and tidal rivers, with departures mainly ~1.25ft
above astronomical. Given that the wind has become SSE tidal
anomalies are expected to increase some during high tide
tonight/early Monday morning, and this will also occur with the
higher astronomical tide. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories
remain in effect to cover this period for the Northern Neck and
Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore. Water levels are expected to
drop off by ~0.5 ft later Monday as the wind shifts to the SW
and water flushes out of the mouth of the Bay. Some nuisance to
localized low-end minor flooding will still be possible with the
higher diurnal astronomical tides late Monday night/early
Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday night/early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ