019
FXUS61 KAKQ 302004
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
404 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift farther off the southeast coast and
out to sea this evening, as a weak cold front approaches from
the northwest. The front will cross the area late tonight
through Wednesday with scattered showers and storms possible
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Dry conditions are expected
Thursday and Friday, with rain chances returning this weekend,
as another cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Late this aftn, upper level ridge has shifted off the coast,
while sfc high pressure was centered well off the SE coast. A
cold front was pushing into extrm wrn VA. The sky was generally
partly sunny across the region with temps in the upper 70s to
mid 80s.

High pressure will shift farther out to sea tonight, as the
front drops into the area from the WNW. Becoming partly to
mostly cloudy with mainly a 15-30% chance of a shower or storm.
The best chances will be across WNW portions of the area (closer
to the boundary). Mild with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

The cold front will be fairly weak/decaying by the time it moves
through the local area Wed into Wed evening. Latest CAMs focus
the majority of the shower/tstm chances across SE portions of
the forecast area Wed aftn into early Wed evening, with the
forecast trending drier for locations farther NNW. Total QPF
will generally be ~0.10-0.25" across SE portions of the area
(locally higher in tstms). Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Any shower/storm activity comes to an end shortly after sunset
Wed evening, with dry conditions returning for Wed night. Lows
will range through the 50s, under a clear to partly cloudy sky.
Will have to watch for the potential for areas of fog late Wed
night into Thu morning.

Dry wx expected for Thu and Fri, as upper ridge builds back over
the Eastern US then just offshore. Mostly sunny and very warm
on Thu with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland/Piedmont, and
in the mid 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast (due to a SE or
S wind). Partly to mostly sunny on Fri with highs mainly in the
mid 80s inland/Piedmont, and ranging through the 70s to around
80 near the Bay/coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Unsettled conditions are expected for late Fri night into Tue.
A frontal boundary, along with areas of low pressure along it
will affect the region Sat into Sun night, bringing a good
chance of showers/tstms across the entire area. Clouds, rain,
and an onshore wind will keep temps cooler on Sat and Sun.
Highs on Sat will range from the mid to upper 60s NE, to the mid
to upper 70s SSW. Highs on Sun will mainly range from the upper
60s to mid 70s. Increasingly warmer Mon and Tue, but there will
be slight to small chances for mainly aftn/early evening showers
or tstms, due to the proximity of a trough. Highs will be in the
mid 70s to lower 80s Mon, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from this aftn into
Wed aftn. SW winds will be 12-17 kt with gusts to 20-26 kt this
aftn into early this evening, then SSW 5-10 kt from this evening
into Wed morning. Expect increasing clouds (mainly CI and AC)
from later this aftn into early Wed morning. Isolated to sctd
showers or tstms will be possible tonight Wed evening, with the
best chances at the ORF/ECG Wed aftn into Wed evening.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected for Thu and Fri. There
is chance for showers/thunderstorms and potentially sub-VFR
conditions from late Fri night through Sun with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions expected through the end of the week and into
the weekend.

A cold front continues to approach from the NW this afternoon with
sfc high pressure anchored off the SE CONUS coast. It is a bit
breezy with SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt (a few higher
gusts have been observed right at the land/water interface with peak
daytime mixing over land). Seas are generally 3-4.5 ft. The front is
expected to cross the local waters tonight-Wed. Breezy conditions
continue through the evening with S-SW winds of 10-15 kt. Winds
diminish to 5-10 kt and turn to the W then NE through the day Wed as
the front crosses the waters. Winds turn back to the south on Thu
(and remain 5-10 kt) before becoming E-NE at 10-15 kt Fri-Sat AM as
another weak front crosses the waters.

Seas remain 3-4 ft through tonight, with a few 5 ft seas possible
out near 20nm off the eastern shore, but will not issue SCAs. Seas
drop back to 2-3ft by Wed evening and may build back to 3-4 ft by
Fri night. Waves stay at 1-2 ft through most of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

No record highs were set yesterday, 4/29. SBY has a chance today,
while records at the other sites are very unlikely.

Record highs for Tuesday April 30th:

* RIC: 93/1974
* ORF: 93/1988
* SBY: 86/2017
* ECG: 90/1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AJB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AM/ERI
CLIMATE...AKQ