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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
417 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this morning. Low
pressure will track from the southeast coast, east northeast and
out to sea Sunday into Monday morning. High pressure will build
over the area for late Monday into Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

Early this morning, a cold front was located just WNW of the
CWA. Latest radar showed just isolated showers moving into
central and scntrl VA. Otherwise, the sky was mostly cloudy or
cloudy with stratus or lower SC prevailing over the area. There
was also patchy fog. Temps were ranging through the 50s.

The cold front will move across the region and offshore this
morning into this aftn. Still expecting widely sctd showers to
accompany the FROPA with slight chance to chance PoPs (20-40%).
While instability remains in short supply, mesoanalysis and
short-term models advertise a modest increase in MUCAPE, as the
front inches closer. Thus, will continue carrying a slight chc
thunder, mainly S and SE of Richmond.

The front will push ESE of the FA and out to sea this aftn
taking any lingering pcpn with it. We should see at least
partial clearing over the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the area this aftn,
as drier air filters in behind the front. Highs will be in the
lower 70s along I-95 and westward into the Piedmont, and in the
mid to upper 60s near the Bay and along the coast.

A stronger shot of CAA arrives tonight into Sun morning. Mostly
clear to partly cloudy early, then becoming partly to mostly
cloudy toward Sun morning. Low temps will drop into the 40s to
near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

Sun into early Mon morning, a southern stream low pressure
system is progged to move out of the Gulf Coast states then
off the SE coast, and out to sea. Rain chances will return by
Sun aftn across the srn half of the forecast area, with the
highest rain chances expected/then continuing across srn/SE
counties for Sun aftn through late Sun night. Highs will only be
in the mid 50s to near 60 on Sun, due to lots of clouds/and or
rain.

That system moves farther out to sea Mon through Mon night, with
high pressure building right over the area by early Tue morning.
Becoming sunny or mostly sunny on Mon with highs ranging through
the 60s. Clear or mostly clear and cold Mon night with lows in
the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure over the region Tue morning, will slide offshore
by Tue evening, before another cold front brings a slight or
small chance of showers during Wed. Although it will be very
cool Tue morning (upper 30s to upper 40s), temps should rebound
nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s. The cold front will push
out to sea Wed night, with high pressure building into/over the
area for Thu. The high will slide off to the NE or E during Fri.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s Wed. Lows Wed night will
range from the upper 30s to upper 40s (coolest NW). Highs will
range through the 60s Thu, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

Expect mainly LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs at the TAF sites through this
morning into this aftn, as a cold front with sctd showers and
maybe a tstm will move through the region then off the coast.
CIGs/conditions will improve to VFR from NW to SE this aftn into
this evening, as winds become northerly and start to usher drier
air into the area. VFR conditions expected tonight through Sun
morning.

Outlook: Rain chances return by Sun aftn and continue through
Sun night, as low pressure tracks from the southeast coast,
east northeast and out to sea Sun into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

Latest analysis shows a weak quasi-stationary frontal boundary just
SW of the waters early this morning, with a trailing cold front just
off to the W-NW. Winds are out of the E-SE 5-10 kt this morning,
seas 3 to 5 ft (highest north of Parramore Island), waves 1-2 ft.
SCA for seas continues over the northern coastal waters through 10
am.

The warm front lifts across the waters in the next few hours,
veering winds around to the SSW. The previously referenced cold
front then crosses the region by sunrise this morning, with winds
expected to swing around to the W-NW then NNW post-frontal later
this morning. Cold air advection is rather weak, so expect this
surge will be mainly sub- SCA, though a brief period of gusts to 20
kt is likely over the coastal waters and elevated terminals in the
Chesapeake Bay after 12z/8am this morning through midday. Winds
level off this afternoon, averaging ~10 to 15 kt.

Winds become NW to N again tonight, as pressure gradient tightens
due to low pressure crossing to our south as high pressure builds to
the west. High-res models are a bit more robust with cool air surge
late tonight/early Sunday and have therefore added an SCA for the
Bay and lower James River for late this evening into Sunday morning.
This surge is also relatively short lived and winds should decrease
with time Sunday morning, with winds again leveling off ~10-15 kt
by Sunday afternoon.

A area of low pressure moves off the Carolinas late Sunday and into
early next week supporting a persistent NE flow and building seas.
Would not be surprised to eventually (briefly) need SCA over
southern coastal waters south of the VA/NC border by the time we get
into the day on Monday, but will keep just below for now.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...

Tidal anomalies continue to slowly ease this morning, but remain
elevated across the upper portions of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal
Potomac. Allowed Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements to drop on
time, but will continue to monitor potential for additional minor
tidal flooding this morning, especially for sensitive locations such
as Bishops Head, MD.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ632-
     634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ