446
FXUS63 KAPX 031346
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
946 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/maybe t-storms ending w to e today.

- Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Rain showers will continue to move west to east across northern
Michigan this morning, exiting the area completely later this
afternoon. Behind this, sunny skies will take hold through the
afternoon and evening. Temperatures look to warm into the 60s later
today after rain chances end -- and may even warm into the low 70s
for some areas along and south of M-55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern/synopsis: 1003mb surface low pressure over far nw MN. A
front arcs east and then south from the low, across western
upper MI and on to central IN. The low heads ne toward southern
Hudson Bay thru tonight, and the front will cross all of
northern MI by early this afternoon.

Forecast: Showers have been expanding during the night. Most of
the forecast area is seeing occasional showers. Lightning has
mostly been in central and southern lower MI. May still be a
window for a few rumbles, especially in n central and ne lower
MI. But the clear main story today is the abrupt end of precip
from w to e, as the front moves thru. Showers will end in far
western areas by late morning, along I-75 by early afternoon,
and along the ne lower MI coast by late afternoon. Substantial
clearing begins only 1-2 hours after precip ends. Expect mostly
clear skies across the area by sunset.

Max temps today in the 60s to around 70f, though cooler on the
immediate coastlines.

For tonight, a weak ridge of high pressure extends into the area
from the ne. Drier air intrusion and diurnally-induced vertical
mixing today, will be substantial enough to limit fog/stratus
potential in western areas tonight. That is less certain in the
east, and especially near Lk Huron. Do have some fog and patchy
low clouds possible east of I-75 overnight.

Min temps upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave troughing and associated low pressure systems situated
across North America will influence the sensible weather for the
long term. Two separate low pressure systems located to the west of
the CWA currently, will eventually track towards the Great Lakes
Region and bring precipitation chances back for the weekend and mid
next week.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

 - Rain showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms this weekend:
A weak frontal passage will bring a round of showers and a slight
chance for thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Along
with this will be a slight decrease in daytime temperatures for
Sunday, but this will be short-lived as we head into Monday. By
Monday, as heights rise, quiet and warmer weather look to take hold
for the first half of the work week. However, guidance continues to
hint at more active/ wet weather returning to the region by mid next
week with the potential for heavier showers and possible
thunderstorms growing more likely- Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Period of low cigs expected this morning, along with widespread
showers, as a cold front crosses the area. The rain will end
from west to east today, beginning mid-morning, and cigs will
improve shortly after. After an early mix of MVFR to IFR cigs,
all sites will improve to VFR...MBL by late morning, APN by late
afternoon.

Winds become w to wnw and a touch gusty behind the front today.
Lighter winds tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JZ