391
FXUS61 KBGM 160810
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
410 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers come to an end this evening. Patchy fog is possible
overnight and Thursday morning, especially in low lying areas.
Warmer conditions return Thursday with mostly dry conditions to
finish out the work week, though afternoon scattered showers will be
possible both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM Update...

Radar imagery shows rain showers are beginning to dissipate
over the region. CAMs suggest a few pop up showers are still
possible over the eastern finger lakes region, therefore left
chance Pops in the forecast to account for this. Otherwise
updated sky grids using satellite imagery as overcast skies
remaining over most of the region with a portion of clearing
over the twin tiers. Also made minor changes to temperatures and
dew points using current observations. Remaining forecast is on
track at this time.

630 PM Update...

Still some steady rain across Oneida County so increased PoP
north of the NYS Thruway through this evening. Latest model
guidance and forecast soundings are showing minimal clearing
tonight in the cloud cover, with abundant low level moisture in
place and stationary front draped over Central NY. May even see
some pocket of very light rain or drizzle overnight near the
vicinity of the front over Central NY.

300 PM Update...

Showers will continue to dissipate from south to north this
afternoon and evening. Most will be dry during the overnight hours,
though some stray showers will be possible in the Finger Lakes
region. A low pressure system will spin off the coast, but it should
be just far enough east to keep showers out of the region. Skies do
scatter out some overnight and with moisture from recent rain
showers, fog will be possible, especially in the lower elevations.
Conditions will be drier across NEPA and the Catskills, so fog is
not expected there. Temperatures will be mild tonight, only falling
into the 50s.

Fog lifts out early in the morning on Thursday. A ridge begins to
build into the region and will bring mostly dry conditions. There
will be a stationary front stretched across the region and the
aforementioned coastal low nudges northward. These two features will
support scattered showers, mainly in the late morning and afternoon
hours. While models do show limited instability and very weak shear,
there likely will not be enough of either to support thunderstorms,
so thunder was removed from the forecast. Otherwise, skies will be
partly cloudy over the majority of the region. Temperatures will
climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s as warmer air moves into the
region.

The frontal boundary drops south overnight and showers come to an
end by the late evening hours as the ridge continues to build into
the region. Conditions may become favorable for valley fog as skies
will stay partly clear through most of the overnight hours.
Overnight lows will once again be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
405 AM Update...

A large, broad low pressure system over Canada will help
propagate a weak shortwave over our forecast area Saturday,
bringing chances for light rain showers for Saturday. These
showers will likely light enough to cause much accumulation;
likely only a few hundreths to up to a tenth of an inch of
precipitation for Saturday. There won`t be much of a temperature
change since it`s a relatively weak feature; high temperatures
will stay in the 70s for the weekend. After this feature makes
an appearance Saturday, drier conditions are expected for Sunday
with weak ridging building into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
405 AM Update...

Long-term model guidance has finally gained better consensus of
what the weather pattern may look like for early next week. The
aforementioned low in Canada will swing southeastward and into
the Great Lakes heading into the early- to mid-week, seemingly
sweeping a large frontal boundary into the area at the very end
of the long-term forecast period. There are still timing
differences, and for now, this frontal boundary looks relatively
weak with just rain showers, but we`ll keep monitoring latest
guidance for any updates.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Skies are clearing with fog developing in the valleys early this
morning. Pushed back fog development by a couple hours given how
long it was taking for the clouds to clear in the western zones.
RME decided to fog right after the TAFs were out so an amendment
was made and will watch to see if that will become predominant.

ELM will likely fog as soon as the clouds clear so that was
timed based off of the receding clouds. AVP looks to most likely
stay fog free as mid level clouds keep streaming in. Fog will
form at BGM towards 9Z as the fog layer makes its way up to the
hill tops.

Later this morning, the fog evaporates by around 10 am with VFR
conditions expected at all terminals through at least 0Z
tonight. There is an extremely small chance of an afternoon
shower so it would be unlucky for a terminal to be impacted.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...Only a slight chance of
showers; mainly VFR.

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/ES/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG