351
FXUS65 KBOI 052040
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
240 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...At 2 PM MDT our
upper low was still centered in eastern OR with showers
extending from eastern NV through south-central ID, across the
Boise Mountains and Upper Weiser River area into Baker County
and western Harney County, but relatively dry closer to the low
center. The low is forecast to move eastward along the ID/NV
border tonight and the showers to the north and west of the
low center will move back over our CWA. As the low exits east
overnight, westerly winds will increase significantly in south-
central ID. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Magic
Valley and southern Twin Falls County from 3 AM MDT to 6 PM MDT
Monday. After brief ridging and drying in western Idaho and
eastern Oregon Monday morning, another Pacific trough will move
inland later Monday and Monday night with more rain and mountain
snow. Monday night. That trough will exit east early Tuesday,
and again west winds will increase in south-central Idaho,
possibly even stronger than on Monday. Instability will allow a
slight chance of thunderstorms in all zones Monday afternoon,
and in southwest Idaho Monday evening, and again in eastern-most
Idaho zones Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will change little
(i.e., stay cold) through Wednesday, with snow level generally
4000-5000 feet MSL.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...An upper low will remain
over the western US through Thursday. This will keep temperatures
around 10 degrees below normal on Wednesday before warming to
near normal by Thursday as the trough exits the area. Thereafter,
an upper ridge is forecast to build over the Pacific NW and
southwest Canada on Friday into the weekend. Temperatures are
expected to rapidly rise to around 5-10 degrees above normal
during this time, with mostly dry conditions expected through
the weekend. Temperatures in the low elevations have a 50-70%
chance of hitting 80 degrees Saturday, with higher chances on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated showers, becoming numerous overnight with
MVFR to LIFR conditions. Mountains obscured. Snow levels
5000-6000 ft MSL, lowering to 3500-4500 ft tonight. Break in
precip Monday morning, then numerous afternoon showers/
thunderstorms.  Potential for small hail and outflow gusts to
35-45 kt. Surface winds: NW-SW 10-20 kt, except 15-25 kt with
gusts 30-35 kt for KMUO to KJER/KTWF beginning early Monday.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 10-20 kt, then W-NW 20-30
kt by 00z/Mon.

KBOI...VFR, then periods of MVFR in rain, mainly after Mon/05z.
A break in rain 11z-18z/Mon, with a return to VFR. Showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon/eve. Small hail and outflow gusts
to 35-45 kt possible. Surface winds: generally W-NW 5-15 kt.
Then W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt after 05z/Mon.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM MDT Monday IDZ016-030.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH