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000
FXUS61 KBTV 151419
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1019 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue across the region today, though just
light rainfall amounts are expected. Dry and pleasant spring weather
is on tap on Tuesday and Wednesday before widespread showers return
to end the work week. The weekend looks mainly dry with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1013 AM EDT Monday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. An area of scattered rain showers continues
to slowly make its way south and PoPs were slightly adjusted to
reflect the updated observations and trends. Behind the
showers, the stratus deck should scatter into a more convective
cumulus deck with some breaks. This is beginning to occur in
the St. Lawrence Valley and it should continue to spread its way
south and east. The fog from overnight has mostly lifted by
now. Previous discussion follows...

Previous discussion...Skies have cleared out
across the southern half of our forecast area this morning,
which has allowed dense valley fog to develop in the usual pone
locations. CLoud cover associated with an upper shortwave
crossing overhead will continue to spread in from the northwest,
and this may keep fog holding in a little longer than might
normally be expected. Showers associated with this feature are
already approaching the St Lawrence Valley, and this activity
will continue to spread over the remainder of the area through
the day. Showers should stay scattered in nature given lack of
really deep moisture and strong forcing, and any rainfall
amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch. Skies will
remain partly to mostly cloudy, and sunnier locations will
likely warm into the mid or even upper 50s. Elsewhere, highs
will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. We`ll see one last burst of
showers this evening as another shortwave digs into the region,
but this activity will wane overnight. Clouds will lessen in
coverage as well, and with light winds, lows will drop into the
lower to mid 30s in most spots; a few upper 20s will be possible
in the usual cold locations. Tuesday will feature more
sunshine, especially earlier in the day. With the upper trough
remaining positioned just off to our northeast, clouds will
likely increase over northeastern areas as daytime heating and
the cold pool aloft allow for steepening low level lapse rates.
Highs will be in the 50s, perhaps a spot 60F in southern
locations. Winds will be a little on the breezy side, so it will
likely feel a little brisk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 AM EDT Monday...Dry weather is expected overnight Tuesday
through much of Wednesday as deep layer ridging continues to slow an
approach warm frontal occlusion. Sunshine is expected to be
plentiful on Wednesday with just a few high clouds transiting the
area. By Wednesday evening, we will begin to see some mid-level
clouds filter into the region and eventually some lower clouds as a
warm occlusion lifts north towards the region. This could bring in
some light rain showers into southern Vermont Wednesday night but
most rain chances will likely hold off until Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Monday...What was once looking like it might be a
decent rainfall event across the North Country continues to look
more and more lackluster. A sizable mid-latitude cyclone is expected
to transit the upper Mid- West Thursday into Friday and push a warm
front across the region on Thursday. By the time the front begins to
impact us, the surface low will likely have already occluded leading
to the frontal boundary shearing apart. This should limit rainfall
totals to a quarter of an inch or less given the latest guidance
with no low level jet given the weakening of the low pressure system
well to our west. As the front shears apart, our rain chances are
expected to quickly dwindle by late Friday morning which should
allow for another break in precipitation until a cold front pushes
through Friday night into Saturday morning. Additional rainfall,
albeit minimal, is expected at this time with a lack of deep layer
moisture and forcing. High pressure is slated to build back into the
region late this weekend and likely continue into the first portion
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Generally MVFR conditions to prevail
through much of the daylight hours today, with local IFR at
KMPV/KSLK in low clouds and fog early in the period. BKN_OVC ceilings
to remain 1500-2500 ft through 20z this afternoon, then
gradually dissipating to SCT by 00z Tuesday. Scattered showers
will continue through 00z Tuesday as well, but should be light
and no visibility restrictions are expected. Light winds this
morning trending west/southwest around 10 kt today, then
subsiding to light and variable after sunset. With clearing
skies and light winds overnight, potential for fog will need to
be monitored, though have not included in the TAFs at this time.
Best chances for IFR should fog develop would be SLK/MPV/EFK.


Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Hastings/Lahiff