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000
FXUS62 KCHS 131923
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
323 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist through much of next week. A cold
front might impact our area late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
This evening and tonight: Broad and flat ridging continues to
progress into the local communities from the west, as the
highly amplified trough in the Atlantic pulls further away. High
pressure at the surface that is centered along the northern
coast of the Gulf of Mexico will expand eastward, resulting in
an east-west ridge aligned just south of the region through the
night. The west-northwest wind gusts of 15-25 mph will quickly
drop off early this evening, then as winds further decouple with
sunset, most places will go light or calm. That along with
clear skies, and an exceptionally dry air mass, will result in
favorable radiational cooling. Based on last night low
temperatures inland getting cooler than guidance, when there was
a little wind, we will go toward the cooler side of guidance
tonight. Our forecast leaned heavily toward the NBM10 Percent,
blended with the ECS MOS, both of which performed well last
night. This results in lows in the middle 40s along the
northwest tier, to the upper 40s and lowers 50s most elsewhere.
The barrier islands, in downtown Savannah, and in urban
Charleston-North Charleston metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft on Sunday will transition to upper ridging
Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile the surface high over the
Southeast will move off the coast on Sunday. Mostly clear skies
are expected Sunday through Monday, then some high cirrus
spreads in from the west on Tuesday.

Highs will reach the low to mid 80s on Sunday, then mid to upper
80s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow expected mid to late week with weak surface high
pressure over the western Atlantic. A few vort maxima embedded
in the mean flow will move through during the period, with weak
surface cold fronts approaching from the west, then dissipating.
A stronger front may approach on Friday, but even this one may
not make it all the way through the area. Temps will remain well
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 18Z Sunday.
Gusty W-NW winds up to 15-20 kt at all terminals will persist
through about 22Z. A weaker pressure gradient associated with
high pressure results in winds becoming light from the W-SW or
possibly calm shortly after sunset, then light SW Sunday
morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
This evening and tonight: The pressure gradient steadily
relaxes in response to high pressure building east along the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Mainly W winds up to 15 kt and gusty
early on, will back to the SW and drop to around 10 kt, then
clock around to the W again overnight due to land breeze
influences. Seas will be no higher than 2 or 3 feet.

Quiet marine conditions expected Sunday through the end of next
week. Atlantic high pressure will prevail, with S to SW winds
10-15 kt and seas no higher than 4 ft. A decent sea breeze will
develop each afternoon, with winds in Charleston Harbor
occasionally gusting close to 20 kt.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...