128
FXUS61 KCLE 191043
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
643 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will build over the region through Monday with a cold
front approaching from the west this afternoon and evening and
lifting north as a warm front Monday. A cold front will approach
from the west Tuesday night and cross the local area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 AM Update...
Patchy fog and low stratus continue across portions of the
area, primarily in river valleys and in locations that received
heavy rainfall over the last couple of days. Expect conditions
to improve quickly over the next couple of hours.

Previous Discussion...
Radiation fog has developed, but it is much patchier than
Friday night. So far, significantly reduced visibilities have
been brief and isolated, so likely won`t need any sort of
advisory unless conditions worsen significantly (which isn`t
supported by guidance). Can`t rule out needing an SPS at some
point primarily along the lakeshore and in locations that have
received rain over the last couple of days. Any fog should
quickly mix out after sunrise and expect mostly sunny to sunny
skies across the majority of the area as a ridge builds in from
the west.

A cold front/shortwave will near the local area from the west
later today. Although the front isn`t expected to cross into
the CWA, there will be sufficient moisture and diurnal
instability in place to allow scattered showers and
thunderstorms to pulse up somewhere across NW OH late this
afternoon and slowly meander south/southeast into this evening.
It`s possible that the best precip chances remain to the
west of the area, so maintained slight chance to chance PoPs in
northwestern zones. Similar to the last couple of days,
steering flow will be very weak so expect any showers/storms to
move slowly, which could result in a low-end flooding risk.
Despite weak wind shear, the environment is supportive of
potential for isolated instances of small hail and/or gusty
winds. Convection should gradually dissipate with the loss of
diurnal heating after sunset this evening. There may be another
round of patchy fog tonight.

The ridge axis will center over the region Monday as the
aforementioned cold front lifts north as a warm front. There
may be widely scattered showers/thunderstorms along the lake
breeze boundary during peak diurnal instability/heating, but
otherwise forcing will be weak so PoPs are capped at slight
chance. Any showers/storms that develop may be slow-moving and
produce locally heavy rainfall.

The warming trend continues through the near term period with
highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s across most of the
area today and the mid to upper 80s on Monday. Locations in NW
OH will likely reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon.
Tonight`s lows will be in the mild upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper ridge across the region is going to win out on Monday night
against a shortwave trough and will opt for a dry forecast that will
continue into the first part of Tuesday. A stronger shortwave will
start to erode the upper ridge on Tuesday while supporting a
deepening low pressure system over the Midwest. There is some
opportunity for temperatures to warm enough to reach convective
temperatures and allow for some diurnally driven rain/storms on
Tuesday afternoon, but the strength of the ridge across the region
just seems like there will be too much of a cap to get much going
and have trimmed PoPs further back on Tuesday. The main forcing
feature of the week will be a cold front with the low pressure
system on Wednesday. This will be coincident with the main upper
trough and provide the best lift for shower/storm chances. The
entire system continues to slow and the best rain chances now appear
to be Wednesday evening. As for storm potential with this complex,
curious if there will be any debris clouds and precipitation from
Tuesday`s storm complex in the Midwest that may impact the area on
Wednesday. However, there should be a sufficient warm, moist air
mass that should be conducive to favorable storm development. Will
need to continue to monitor Wednesday for severe potential.
Temperatures should continue to soar well above normal for the
period, especially if rain chances continue to trend down and
slower. There is a reasonable shot at 90 degrees with how dry some
locations have been.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast period is trending generally quiet. A cold
front will be exiting the region with high pressure building behind
it on Thursday. PoPs will trend down to dry by Thursday night into
Friday. The former cold front will try to lift back north into the
area as a warm front on Saturday and have chance PoPs but the main
supporting upper trough may not arrive until early next week, so the
entire Friday and Saturday portions of the period may continue to
trend more dry. Temperatures will be generally seasonable, trending
upward into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mixed bag of ceilings and visibilities across the area this
morning thanks to patchy fog and low stratus. Expect conditions
to rapidly improve near or shortly after 12Z with widespread VFR
anticipated for the majority of the TAF period. A few
showers/storms may move within the vicinity of KTOL/KFDY late
this afternoon into this evening, but it`s possible that precip
remains to the west of these terminals where there will be
better forcing. If any precip does manage to move directly over
these sites, there may be a period of non-VFR conditions. Non-
VFR is possible with patchy fog tonight, primarily in NE OH/NW
PA and locations and where precipitation falls today.

Light and variable winds 5 knots or less are expected through
the period.

Outlook...Low risk for isolated thunderstorms and non-VFR in
Northwest OH Monday night. Somewhat greater potential for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms and non-VFR Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are
likely Wednesday afternoon. Mainly VFR is expected outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Some fog is present on the lake this morning, but the density is not
as severe as yesterday. Will have a fog mention in the forecast, but
will omit a headline for now. High pressure across the region will
allow for light and generally easterly flow today. The high will
slide east for Monday and a warm front will cross the lake and flow
will shift to be southeasterly with potential for a lake breeze to
be disruptive to the flow. A low pressure system will develop over
the central CONUS on Tuesday and lift northeast through the
northwest Great Lakes. This system will increase the pressure
gradient across the lake and southerly flow will increase as a cold
front approaches the lake on Wednesday. The front will cross the
lake by Thursday and westerly flow will be favored before backing
once again to the southwest. Unless a brief dense fog advisory is
issued this morning, there do not seem to be any marine weather
headline concerns at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Sefcovic