093
FXUS64 KCRP 051911
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
211 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Difficult forecast in terms of convection today. Models generally
do not have a great handle on things...though the 00Z 3km NAM is
impressively in line with current convection. This model...along
with several others including the past several runs of HRRR keep
the bulk of the convection north of our forecast area this
morning, though some isolated showers will be possible, mainly in
the northern Coastal Bend. The big question for the day will be
where an outflow from the convection north of us lands today as
this will likely become a focus for afternoon convective
development. Latest models are trending more north with this
boundary, and it`s possible we only see isolated to scattered
activity here this afternoon. But...it`s also possible the
boundary drifts closer and we see a line of storms push through
our area. There is a slight chance for strong to severe storms for
our northern tier of counties and a marginal risk south.
Basically, if we get convection, it could become strong to severe
with 0-6km shear values above 50kt and plenty of cape, especially
south of the lingering boundary.

Low level moisture remains deep enough Sunday night to maintain a
chance for isolated showers, but heading into Monday that
moisture gets quite shallow and should be the remaining end of
any notable rain chances. After a very seasonal day (for high
temperatures), we`ll begin our warming trend tomorrow, adding 5+
degrees to today`s values. The Rio Grande Plains should top out in
the upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a moderate to high chance of heat index values 100
degrees and higher for much of the region from Tuesday through
Thursday.
- A front Thursday night will usher in drier air and return
temperatures to near normal for this time of year.

Onshore flow will keep above normal moisture in place across South
Texas through much of this week. Temperatures will begin to rise,
peaking Thursday, as hot and dry air from the Mexican Plateau
expands eastward above the region. These hot temperatures will mix
down to the surface each afternoon through Thursday before a front
moves through helping to cool things down a bit.

HeatRisk values (level 3 out of 4) for much of South Texas suggest a
significant risk to all individuals who are exposed to the sun and
active or are in a heat-sensitive group. There is a moderate to high
chance that heat index values in excess of 100 degrees will occur
Tuesday through Thursday for the majority of the region. Some
locations may approach heat indices of 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory
may be needed towards the middle of the week, especially for the
Southern Coastal Bend region.

A front looks to move through Thursday night, which will usher in
drier air and temperatures closer to normal (mid-80s near the coast
to upper 80s/low 90s inland). There will also be a low chance of
precipitation with this front, but there remains significant
uncertainty this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Boundary that was left over last night has remained north of the
forecast area in the Hill Country, with another weaker boundary
that storms fired on earlier. Thunderstorms will have the chance
to fire up along the main boundary and move into COT and VCT
through the evening. The other TAF sites (LRD, ALI, and CRP) may
get thunderstorms (20-30% chance), but think most will fire along
the boundary to the north. After 00z/Mon, with the daytime heating
diminishing, the threat for thunder should diminish, with the
problem becoming low clouds and patchy fog. However, like the last
few days, the CIGs will lift by 15z/16z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through
Thursday. Winds will back more to the northeast Friday into
Saturday with the passage of a frontal boundary. Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions will be present most of the week.
There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms pushing
offshore this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast remains dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  89  76  91 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          73  88  75  91 /  10   0   0   0
Laredo            76  97  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             74  92  74  96 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          76  85  77  86 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           76  95  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        75  90  75  93 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  86  78  87 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....CLM
AVIATION...JSL/86