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000
FXUS64 KCRP 121643
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Mid-level low shifts eastward today allowing ridging to build in. At
the surface, ridging will be shifting east of the area bringing a
return to steady onshore flow, and as a result an increase in low
level moisture. With dry conditions still in place today, elevated
fire weather conditions will be possible west where winds are
expected to become gusty this afternoon. Specifically of concern for
elevated fire conditions are Webb and LaSalle county and will have a
fire danger statement in place there through the afternoon. Clouds
will be on the increase, especially this evening into tomorrow with
pacific moisture streaming in aloft.  A mid-level shortwave will
shift across tomorrow, but with dry air between about 850 and 500
mb, dont expect any convection to be able to develop. In addition to
gusty winds today, will see them again tomorrow as low pressure
strengthens to the west.

Temperatures today will be near normal with highs mainly from the
upper 80s west to the lower 80s east. Tomorrow looks a degree or two
warmer.  Low temps tonight will be not as pleasant as they`ve been
the past few nights thanks to the increasing surface moisture, with
lows in the 60s for most of the area. Patchy fog could also
develop.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The next several days of the long term period will be able to be
described in two words: warm and dry. Upper-level ridging will
remain in place as a surface high pressure over the Southeastern
CONUS and northern Gulf of Mexico allows for onshore flow to
persist. With the continuation of onshore flow, and therefore,
increased moisture return, much warmer temperatures can be expected
in South Texas in the coming days. Highs will start out in the mid
80s to mid 90s in the Rio Grande Plains and the Brush Country, with
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads regions in the upper 70s to
to low 80s. By Monday, there is a low chance (20-30%) of
temperatures reaching the triple digits out west, which will likely
continue through much of the long term period. Our northeastern
counties and coastal areas will stay in the low 80s.

Breezy conditions will also be likely during the long term. Early in
the work week, a surface low propagating eastward from the Rockies
is set to move into the Central Plains behind the aforementioned
surface high pressure. This will tighten the surface pressure
gradient, causing stronger winds for our CWA. The NBM suggests a
medium-to-high chance (70-90%) of wind gusts greater than 30 mph
beginning late Sunday and continuing into early Tuesday. These
elevated winds could also lead to elevated marine conditions, which
is discussed further in the Marine Discussion below.

Finally, some relief to next week`s warm and dry spell looks to
arrive late Thursday into early Friday. Model guidance is hinting of
a cold front passage which would allow for the potential return of
wetter weather by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
With low level moisture returning, expect some patchy fog in the
morning across the Coastal Plains, so have included a TEMPO for
MVFR visibility. Breezy conditions are expected through this
afternoon. Winds will diminish overnight before becoming breezy
again by mid-morning Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Onshore flow redevelops today at mainly weak to moderate levels,
though bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas will be
moderate. By Saturday, more of the area will see a moderate flow
through the afternoon and overnight hours. Weak to moderate
southeast flow is expected to continue Sunday through mid-week
next week. However, Monday afternoon through Monday night, there
is a low to medium chance for winds to strengthen to Small Craft
Advisory conditions (over 20 knots). Because of the elevated wind
potential, seas could reach 5-7 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    83  66  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          81  59  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            88  64  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             85  62  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          78  68  79  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           86  63  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        83  64  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       79  70  80  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...LS/77