National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KCRP 162345
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
645 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A quasi-stationary upper pattern is expected during the period,
yet with an upper low across the northern CONUS/southern Canada
Wednesday (deterministic NAM/ECMWF/GFS). In response, persistent
onshore flow is expected over the region. Although PWAT values
will remain above normal over the CWA during the period, strong
CIN will preclude surface-based convection over the Coastal
Plains/Victoria Crossroads. However, owing lower CIN values over
the western Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains (NAM deterministic
output), surface parcels may reach their respective LFCs late
Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Will forecast isolated
convection over Webb/LaSalle counties for the 00-06z Thursday
period (although will probably occur in the 00-03z Thursday range).
Observations/spectral density at buoy 42019 (6ft/8s) swells and
weak to moderate onshore flow suggests a High risk of rip
currents. The WaveWatch suggests that swell periods may fall to 7s
Wednesday. Will upgrade from Moderate to High risk for tonight
and from Low to Moderate for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Key Messages:

▶ There is a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the Brush
Country Thursday.

▶  Cold Front This Weekend with a Medium chance (30-50%) of showers
and thunderstorms

During the long term period a quasi-zonal flow aloft and a few
mid- level lows/embedded shortwaves coming off the eastern Pacific
combined with our proximity to a surface boundary is expected to
provide enough instability and moisture to keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast daily until after the front comes
through the region.

A stalled surface front stretched across from west Texas northeast
towards OK at the beginning of the period will approach our CWA
Thursday and will combine with several mid-level shortwaves bringing
a low (15-20%) chance for showers/thunderstorms across western
portions of the CWA. If storms form, some may become strong to
severe Thursday afternoon as upper level support exists in the
region but the lower-mid levels will be capped. As a result of the
conditionally unstable profile, SPC has most of South Texas under a
general thunder category with portions of our northwestern Brush
Country under a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms
where better dynamics exist. Low chances (<30%) for showers and
storms will continue as we head into the weekend.

A mid-level shortwave and reinforcing surge over the Central CONUS
will help drive the aforementioned front southward this weekend with
FROPA across South Texas expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning. There`s a moderate to high chance (50-75%) for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night as the front comes through, with
locales towards the northern border of our CWA having the best
chance for activity.

Low level temperature advection will lead to very warm
temperatures Thursday and Friday, especially out west under
partly cloudy skies, allowing afternoon temperatures to climb into
the triple digits in some places. Otherwise, highs generally
range in the 80s through the end of the week, then we dip into the
70s after the front to start out next week, then it`s back into
the 80s by Tuesday. Overnight, lows will start out Thursday night
in the 70s then will dip into the low 60s/upper 50s Sunday night
then warm back into the 70s by mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions this evening across most sites will drop to MVFR
tonight, with a low chance of IFR ceilings developing at ALI and
VCT from 9-13z. Most sites should return to VFR tomorrow, albeit
just above VFR ceiling thresholds. Weak winds tonight will
increase tomorrow morning but should remain below 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Generally weak to moderate onshore flow expected tonight through
Wednesday night, given the quasi-zonal upper pattern over the
CONUS. Weak to moderate onshore flow will become northeasterly
and moderate Sunday after a front moves offshore. Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions are expected behind the front with
weak to moderate onshore flow returning by Tuesday. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along
the front with a moderate chance (45-60%) early Sunday dropping to
a low chance (20-30%) by Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    87  73  86  73 /   0  10  10  10
Victoria          85  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
Laredo            95  75  96  76 /   0  10  10  20
Alice             94  72  89  72 /   0  10  10  10
Rockport          83  72  82  72 /   0  10  10  10
Cotulla           94  74  94  74 /   0   0  10  20
Kingsville        91  73  88  72 /   0  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       82  73  82  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...JCP/84